Fed set for centre stage next week, with tier 1 data also scheduled from Germany and the UK
A subdued start to the week saw little in terms of newsflow, with price action following suit. However events picked up as the week went on, initially with rate decisions from the BoE and SNB, before Friday saw the latest moves from the PBoC. The BoE and SNB both kept rates on hold and despite some initial softness seen in GBP in the wake of some dovish rhetoric, a sustained reaction was not seen in either currencies. This comes as both central banks failed to significantly alter their view portrayed in recent rhetoric.
Friday then saw the PBoC announce a change to how they will evaluate the CNY, stating they are to look at a basket instead of USD/CNY for a more appropriate view of the currency’s strength. With the basket set to be made up of USD, EUR and JPY, markets anticipated that the Chinese central bank will have to hold less USD currency reserves and will instead need to hold other currencies and as such, the European afternoon saw significant weakness go through USD, with the aforementioned EUR and JPY benefiting as well as safe haven flows seeing strength in CHF and a yield play, further benefiting JPY. As well as the PBoC news on Friday, the ongoing oil slump saw commodity linked and EM currencies under pressure, with particular focus on the ZAR after the announcement that the South African finance minister is to be replaced.
Looking ahead to next week, the vast majority of market focus is on the most significant central bank rate decision of the year, with the Fed looking like they may finally lift rates for the first time this cycle. With many participants already pricing in a rate hike, the decision alone may not be the only focal point. Participants will also be keeping a close eye on any comments from Yellen and Co. regarding the rate path over the longer term, with some analysts suggesting that given Fed’s Yellen’s historical stance, this could be somewhat of a `dovish hike`.
Other rate decisions next week include Asia’s Thailand and Philippines as well as Scandinavia’s Sweden and Norway, with the latter one of the more interesting rate decisions given the ongoing oil slump and the country’s reliance on oil. Elsewhere in Europe, ZEW and IFO surveys will give participants a clue as to the current sentiment in Germany, while the UK sees a week of tier 1 data, with CPI and unemployment both scheduled for release.