Weekly Forex Price Action Setups: June 16 - 21, 2013

For the last 17 days, the EU on the 4hr chart has held above the dynamic support and 20ema. We went 3-for-3 last week on our buy reco’s using this, so hopefully you profited from this - but will the uptrend continue? Although the daily charts show downside wicks and rejections (communicating a buy on dips order flow), the intraday charts are starting to look a little tired. So watch for a potential range or deeper pullback to emerge before the next direction comes. Key support comes in at 1.3200/3181 while resistance is at 1.3384. I’ll look for buy signals towards 1.3181 if it pulls back correctively.
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GBP/USD – Stronger of the Two?
Between the euro and GBP, the pound is definitely stronger, which you could notice via the inverted pin bar that shows greater strength on the GBP closing higher, and having a longer downside wick. If I could only trade one of these pairs, it would be the GBP which I still favor longs on. 1.5585 is a good short term pullback area to get long, but I would also consider a breakout above 1.5730 with the pullback being my current weapon of choice as intraday charts show it is well supported. Upside resistance comes in at 1.5800.
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Crude Oil – Pinching Up to Key Resistance
On an impressive $6 run closing bullish on 7 of its last 10 days, WTI Crude Oil is pinching up against a key resistance and yearly high at 98.05. Although it is bullish in the short term, bears can look for fading at this level on the intraday price action signals, targeting 97.30 with tight stops above 98. Bulls meanwhile, can look for shallow pullbacks towards 96.00 to rejoin the short term uptrend.

Nikkei 225 – Downtrend Still in Play
In our market commentary for June 5, we suggested looking for sell signals around 13600/660, targeting the 12700 support area. 3 trading days later, the index hit this level, went only 40pts above it and then sold off over 900pts to our target, so hopefully you profited from this as much as the savvy price action traders did. Now the floor is set around 12291, with the 13660 level being topside resistance. If a range forms between these two levels – play the range. But if a breakout occurs to the downside, look to rejoin the trend on a breakout pullback setup.


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