Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of November 9th through November 13th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of November 9th through November 13th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Sunday, November 8th
2:09am CNY Trade Balance 393B versus 367B expected.
3:01am CNY Dollar-Denominated Trade Balance 61.6B versus 62.1B expected.
Monday, November 9th
12:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements 0.4% versus last 3.8%. The currency rose.
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings: President of the Eurogroup, J. Dijsselbloem noted that,
“On the future of the monetary union, we had an initial exchange of views on the follow-up to the 5 Presidents' report. In October the Commission presented its first proposals on economic governance and today we had a first round of debate on that, and specifically on external representation. Not much I can say about that. It was a first round, and on some other issues like the Fiscal Board and the Competitiveness Authorities. The debate on those governance issues will be on the Ecofin agenda tomorrow, so we'll pick up on that from there.”
The currency rose.
11:50pm JPY Current Account 0.78T versus 1.50T expected. The currency fell.
Tuesday, November 10th
1:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 2 versus last 5. The currency fell.
12:30am AUD Home Loans 2.0% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
1:30am CNY CPI 1.3% versus 1.5% expected.
1:30am CNY PPI -5.9% versus -5.9% expected.
7:30am All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings: Pierre Gramegna, Minister of Finance of Luxembourg noted that,
“With an ambitious mandate for the Paris conference, the European Union is assuming its role as one of the main forces behind a new climate agreement.”
The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Import Price -0.5% versus -0.1% expected. The currency rose.
8:00pm NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report noted that,
“Low interest rates continue to support global recovery, but also encourage leverage and financial risk-taking. At the same time low interest rates may be disguising a decline in market liquidity, which could amplify volatility in financial markets. Slowing growth in China has been a key driver of deterioration.”
The currency fell.
8:05pm NZD RBNZ Governor Wheeler said that,
“The possibility of us raising interest rates at this point to lean against house price pressures in Auckland are probably pretty negligible”.
The currency fell.
11:30pm AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 3.9% versus last 4.2%. The currency rose.
Wednesday, November 11th
5:30am CNY Industrial Production 5.6% versus 5.8% expected.
5:30am CNY Fixed Asset Investment 10.2% versus 10.2% expected.
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3.0% versus 3.2% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 3.3K versus 1.6K expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 5.3% versus 5.4% expected. The currency rose.
10:30am GBP BOE Governor Carney said that,
“Over the past seven years, a huge programme of reform has been underway to fix the fault lines that led to the crisis and to build more resilient sources of finance to serve the real economy. The UK has played a leading role, consistent with our position as the pre-eminent global financial centre. 40% of global foreign exchange trading goes through London. Half of all trades in OTC interest rate derivatives. Two-thirds of trading in international bonds and more international banking activity is booked here than anywhere else.”
The currency rose.
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
All Day USD Bank Holiday
1:15pm EUR ECB President Draghi said that,
“Cross border markets create a community of interest from which each member stands to benefit. But they also heighten shared exposure to the potential detriment of all, so they need governance. This is true at the global level and the European level. It is even more true for countries sharing the single currency. For them, it is even more important to complete economic and monetary union in all its aspects.”
The currency rose.
11:50pm JPY Core Machinery Orders 7.5% versus 3.3% expected. The currency fell.
Thursday, November 12th
12:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 3.5% versus last 3.5%. The currency rose.
12:30am AUD Employment Change 58.6K versus 14.8K expected. The currency rose.
12:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 5.9% versus 6.2% expected. The currency rose.
8:30am EUR ECB President Draghi said that,
“Incoming data confirm that the recovery in the euro area is progressing moderately. So far, economic activity in the euro area has shown some degree of resilience in the face of external influences that tend to weaken demand. While external demand has receded, euro area exports market shares have increased. The lower cost of energy and our monetary policy measures are supporting consumption and, increasingly, new capital formation.”
The currency rose.
10:30am EUR ECB President Draghi said that,
“Since 2010, three countries have now successfully completed their programmes, and Ireland is a particularly good example of how such programmes can deliver the necessary adjustment and restore financial stability, economic competitiveness and fiscal sustainability.”
The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD NHPI 0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 276K versus 270K expected. The currency fell.
2:30pm USD Fed Chair Yellen said that,
“As I have often stressed before, in addition to its responsibilities for monetary policy and financial regulation and supervision, the Federal Reserve takes very seriously its role as a research institution. I want to thank our research conference committee for putting together this high-caliber research conference, which has gathered distinguished speakers and guests from around the world and, I am sure, will add to our understanding of the implementation and transmission of monetary policy.”
The currency fell.
3:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 5.53M versus 5.39M expected. The currency fell.
3:15pm USD FOMC Member Evans said that,
“More specifically, before raising rates, I would like to have more confidence than I do today that inflation is indeed beginning to head higher. Given the current low level of core inflation, some evidence of true upward momentum in actual inflation is critical to this assessment. I believe that it could be well into next year before the headwinds from lower energy prices and the stronger dollar dissipate enough so that we begin to see some sustained upward movement in core inflation. After liftoff, I think it would be appropriate to raise the target interest rate very gradually. This would give us sufficient time to assess how the economy is adjusting to higher rates and the progress we are making toward our policy goals.”
The currency fell.
4:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 4.2M versus 0.8M expected. The currency fell.
5:00pm GBP MPC Member Haldane said that,
“Growth has slowed towards trend in the UK, US and globally. And speed limits matter. Any further loss of momentum would risk taking growth below trend, widening the output gap and adding to downward pressures on already-weak prices. My personal view is that, in the current environment, a rate rise would increase unnecessarily the chances of the economy falling below critical velocity, thereby extending the period inflation remains below target. For those reasons, I have continued to vote to leave rates unchanged, with a neutral stance on the future direction of monetary policy.”
The currency rose.
5:15pm USD FOMC Member Dudley said that,
“Before I start, I want to be clear about one specific issue I will not address today — that is, whether or not I expect the monetary policy normalization process to commence at the next FOMC meeting in December. Let me just say that my view will depend on how incoming data, broadly defined, influences my assessment of the prospects for further improvement in the U.S. labor market and my confidence that inflation will return to the FOMC’s 2 percent objective over the medium term.”
The currency fell.
11:00pm USD FOMC Member Fischer said that,
“As policymakers, we must always be vigilant to events unfolding differently than we expect and we must be ready to act accordingly”.
The currency rose.
Friday, November 13th
7:00am EUR German Preliminary GDP 0.3% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.
8:15am CHF PPI 0.2% versus -0.2% expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR Flash GDP 0.4% versus last 0.4%. The currency fell.
1:00pm CAD Governor Council Member Wilkins said that,
“Targeting inflation seems like an obvious choice today, now that it’s been replicated in all major advanced economies. When we started studying it, however, many economists would have told you that it was unworkable. Not afraid to innovate, we were the second central bank in the world to set an inflation target, a few short months after New Zealand. It was a few years before the idea of targeting inflation was fully accepted by the Canadian public, and the Bank took a lot of heat for it. These days, most central bankers see inflation targeting as a success. It is credited with contributing to the “Great Moderation” — the 25 years or so before the financial crisis, when the performance of advanced economies was unusually good.”
The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales 0.4% versus last -0.3%. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD PPI 0.2% versus last -0.5%. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Retail Sales 0.3% versus last 0.1%. The currency rose.
2:30pm USD Core PPI 0.1% versus last -0.3%. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 91.3 versus last 90.0. The currency rose.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.07243 open to a 1.07262 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 123.258 open to 122.904 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.50454 open to a 1.52094 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.70261 open to 0.71212 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.33003 open to a 1.33255 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.65156 open to a 0.65284 close.
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.