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Weekly Focus: Sweden, Calm Summer Market For Once‏

ByDanske Markets
Published 08/04/2013, 04:53 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
Market movers ahead

Euro area service PMIs are likely to confirm that the euro area is heading from recession to slow growth. We expect last month's decline in the Italian figure to be countered and the Spanish to catch up on manufacturing PMI.

We expect the recent enhancement in German manufacturing PMI to be mirrored by an increase in German factory orders but industrial production could decline.

In the US, we expect the ISM non-manufacturing index to rebound somewhat. Decent figures for employment in the service sector and an increasing NAHB housing index suggest that non-manufacturing is still in a good shape.

In Norway, manufacturing data will reveal whether the somewhat dismal picture that the two latest PMI releases have painted is confirmed or not.

We expect Danish industrial production to increase as manufacturing confidence has improved and economic data from Denmark's biggest export markets are now pointing in the right direction.

Global macro and market themes

The summer market this year has so far been fairly calm. After nervousness about the political situation in Portugal, market sentiment has mostly been positive, supported by positive news flow from the euro area and promises of continued loose monetary policy until the recovery has gained firm footing.

The ECB's forward guidance was repeated at August's meeting, when Mario Draghi also said that current expectations of rate hikes in the money market are unwarranted.

The August FOMC statement came with a minor dovish twist and there was no pre-commitment to a September start of tapering. It thus remains data dependent.

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