Weekly Focus: EUR/USD At A Turning Point‏

Published 05/15/2014, 01:11 PM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

The Fed is due to release minutes from the FOMC meeting of 29-30 April and Chairwoman Janet Yellen will speak at the New York University on the same day.


Preliminary May figures for the PMIs in the euro area, Germany and France are due and our models point to euro area manufacturing PMI going slightly higher.

We expect the Germany IFO expectations index to increase slightly in May.

The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) next meeting takes place on 21 May. The BoJ is unlikely to announce any new easing measures in connection with the meeting.

It seems as though growth in Norway accelerated in early 2014.



Global macro and market themes


The ECB seems to have made up its mind to act. Comments this week from ECB members suggest that it could launch a package of measures rather than just a cut in the repo and deposit rate.

The more dovish ECB talk has pushed EUR/USD lower and it seems likely the peak in EUR/USD is now behind us.

Over the past week, we saw more signs of re-acceleration in the two regions that struggled at the start of 2014 - the US and China.

In Germany, some data in recent months has shown some moderation. However, we do not expect to see a new slowdown. We continue to expect robust growth in the economy this year.

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