Market movers ahead
In the US the focus next week will be on consumer spending. Private consumption should improve going forward and be the main driver of GDP growth.
US PPI and import prices will provide insight about underlying price pressure on goods after the oil price decline in July.
In the euro area the GDP growth figure for Q2 should confirm that the recovery continued, but relying on stronger German activity, not weaker French activity.
Euro-area survey indicators should give a first sign of improvement now that uncertainty has faded on the back of the Greek deal.
Although the focus in the UK has moved to inflation, wage growth, which is due for release next week, is still an important determinant for the Bank of England.
In Scandi markets attention will focus on inflation with the release of the Norwegian, Swedish and Danish figures.
Global macro and market themes
Gasoline prices have been resilient to the oil price drop, resulting in a modest impact on consumers.
The Fed's Lockhart provided a hawkish shift in Fed rhetoric which supports our call for a September hike.
The Fed pricing is still too subdued, and we expect higher short-term US yields and lower EUR/USD.
The Bank of England is more dovish than expected due to strong sterling and the lower oil price.
The euro-area periphery countries are recovering, but political uncertainty is looming.
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