Market movers ahead
- Negotiations on the US fiscal cliff continue.
- Euro Flash PMI and German IFO expected to show small improvement.
- We look for a further rise in Chinese HSBC Flash PMI.
- The Bank of Japan is not expected to add stimulus at next week's meeting.
- Q3 GDP growth in Norway is likely to have seen a deceleration to 0.5% q/q.
- Political events took centre stage with fiscal cliff talks in the US, negotiations on Greek debt relief in Europe and the change in the Chinese leadership.
- Uncertainty is weighing on financial markets giving a further set back in risk assets.
- US data was more mixed this week. It is likely distortions from Hurricane Sandy played a role but uncertainty over the fiscal cliff could also be in play.
- GDP in the euro area fell slightly in Q3 and, in our view, is likely to decline further in Q4.
• China has been in focus this week with the change in leadership – see Research: China – leadership transition looks like a conservative victory, 15 November. We have also studied the growth outlook for China further in Research: Moderate recovery on stronger domestic demand, 13 November.
• For a quick overview of the US fiscal cliff negotiations see Research US: Wrap up on the fiscal cliff negotiations, 13 November.
To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below