Market Movers ahead
Norway will likely be the centre of attention next week, with the so-called oil investment survey due on Tuesday. Falling oil prices since last summer have already had a negative effect on the Norwegian economy, but as the price of oil has declined further since its last release, the survey may well have significant market impact if it delivers a surprise.
In Europe, several interesting measures of the health of the industrial sector are due. Eurozone PMI is scheduled for Monday, when we expect to see a slight rise, followed on Tuesday by Germany's IFO, which will provide further insight into the outlook for German industry in the coming months. Here too, we assume the IFO expectations index will post a small increase, as the Chinese economy appears more stable and financial uncertainty has eased a little.
Inflation will be in focus in the US, with the release of PCE inflation on Wednesday. Inflation is a key determinant of interest rates.
Global macro and market themes
Our MacroScope models have turned positive for the first time in more than six months.
This is positive for equities, particularly the European ones, neutral for fixed income.
Previous Fed rate hiking cycles suggest that the USD will weaken after lift-off.
The CNY to weaken but we still do not expect a big devaluation.
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