We have several important economic data releases next week which should give us more information about the state of the world economy. Good data could give some relief as the financial turmoil partly reflects rising growth concerns.
In the US, we get news both from the consumer side (consumer confidence, and personal spending and income) and the producer side (PMI manufacturing and durable goods orders). We expect PCE core inflation rose to 1.5% y/y in January, which is still 0.5pp below the Fed's 2% target.
In the euro area, we expect weaker PMIs and German IFO expectations indicating that growth has slowed. We are also looking out for the M3 money supply and bank lending figures, as these have been to the weaker side recently.
We have some important central bank speeches next week. Most important are the speeches by Peter Praet, Chief Economist of the ECB, and Fed's Bullard.
The Norwegian oil investment survey is one of the most important indicators for the development of the Norwegian economy.
Global macro and market themes
Short-term relief in markets on dovish central banks, easing fears over China and stabilisation in oil.
However, we still see rising risk of systemic crisis.
Sharp decline in inflation expectations challenges central banks.
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