Market movers ahead
In the US, we estimate retail sales rebounded slightly in February, but we believe bad weather continued to weigh on consumer spending.
Euro area industrial production appears to have remained strong in January despite signs of slower manufacturing activity outside Europe.
In China, we expect industrial production to have eased further in January and February, driven mainly by weaker demand for investment goods.
In our view, the Bank of Japan is unlikely to announce any easing measures in connection with next week's meeting.
In Sweden, we expect inflation to stay below the Riksbank's forecast, strengthening the case for a rate cut soon.
Global macro and market themes
The ECB has raised the bar for further easing and imminent easing is no longer on the cards.
The ECB's inflation forecast is still too optimistic, and it is our view that low inflation will eventually force the ECB to ease further, possibly as soon as Q2.
Risk sentiment remains resilient despite increasing geopolitical risk, weak data in the US and the ECB's reluctance to ease.
The US labour market report was surprisingly resilient despite the negative impact of bad weather: We expect the Fed to stay on its current tapering path.
The relatively hawkish ECB leaves a floor under interest rates in the euro area in the short term and the upside risk on EUR/USD has also increased in the short term.
In China, the government maintains its 7.5% growth target, signalling little willingness to stomach weaker growth.
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