Weekly Focus Sweden: ECB Surprises - What Will Its Colleagues Do?

Published 03/11/2016, 12:16 PM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

The Federal Reserve is unlikely to change interest rates this week it but may well signal that more rate hikes are on the way than the market currently expects.

Bank of England is also unlikely to move on interest rates and is signalling less haste than the US about getting started.

Norges Bank looks set to cut its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points due to a slowing economy.

We expect Chinese industrial production growth to pick up this year, although that may not be readily apparent in the February numbers.

Swedish inflation and labour market data could be on the strong side and lead to a stronger SEK.

Global macro and market themes

The ECB's signals mean a small chance of a Danish rate cut.

The ECB has shifted from targeting the exchange rate to supporting the credit/bank lending channel. That is sensible but it remains to be seen how effective the new measures will be.

The ECB's measures are positive for risky assets, particularly equity and credit markets, and support our view that EUR/USD will head higher in 2016.

The menu of easing measures supports flatter curves in core euro fixed income markets.


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