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Weekly Focus Sweden: Diverging Paths For Central Banks‏

Published 11/15/2013, 06:11 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
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The euro area's manufacturing PMIs are expected to be broadly unchanged in November, but still consistent with a slight improvement in growth.

In the US minutes from the October Fed meeting could give us important insight into the support within the Fed for strengthening forward guidance.

The Bank of Japan is not expected to add additional stimulus in connection with its meeting despite slower growth in Q3.

In China we expect only a slight improvement in the HSBC manufacturing PMI in November.

In Norway GDP growth in Q3 is expected to have held up relatively well despite weak private consumption, possibly weakening the case for a rate cut.

Global Macro and Market Themes

The Fed is now expected to start tapering in January on the back of the strong labour market but dovish comments from Janet Yellen underscore it is not a done deal.

Growth in the euro area disappointed slightly. While we do not expect another rate cut, ECB is expected to launch a new LTRO but to refrain from asset purchases.

The Bank of England revised its unemployment forecast markedly lower and now projects its first rate hike in 2015.

Divergent paths for central banks strengthen the case for a weaker EUR.

In China the Third Plenary is expected to pave the way for accelerated economic reforms, albeit few specifics were revealed.

Renewed pressure on Emerging Markets due to Fed tapering fears.

In Sweden a drop in inflation paves the way for an interest rate cut in December.

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