Market movers ahead
Next week China is due to publish Q1 GDP. We expect the release to show that China's 7% growth for this year is already challenged.
We expect no change or new signals on policy but we look for a dovish stance from Mario Draghi when the ECB meets on Thursday.
We estimate a significant rebound in US core retail sales of 0.8% m/m in March.
We expect US headline CPI to increase 0.2% m/m, which would take annual inflation out of deflationary territory.
G-20 finance ministers and central bankers are set to meet in Washington next week.
Global macro and market themes
The US neutral policy rate is lower but not as low as market prices.
The US output gap is set to close faster than expected.
We look for higher US yields soon.
It is time for the next leg down in EUR/USD.
Euro data disappointed this week but the economy still looks strong.
Chinese inflation adds to expectations of more easing.
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