Market movers ahead
It will be interesting to follow the actions and words of the People's Bank of China in coming days as there are still many unanswered questions on the new CNY policy.
Is the US set to hike interest rates in September? We expect inflation figures to point in that direction. Further clues may be found in the minutes of the Fed's latest rate meeting and the first indicators for August.
An upside surprise in UK inflation could point to a November interest rate hike.
Japanese GDP probably fell in Q2 but this should be viewed as a pause in the ongoing recovery following a very strong Q1.
Weak Norwegian GDP figures could reawaken expectations of rate cuts.
Global macro and market themes
We change our CNY forecast and now look for a further depreciation of around 5% over 6-12 months.
The effects of the CNY devaluation should not be exaggerated.
Deflationary impact of commodity prices is much more important for bond markets.
The Fed is still on track for a September hike.
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