Market movers ahead
Next week we are due to get a number of services sector PMI figures. In the US, we expect ISM non-manufacturing PMI to continue to indicate strong growth in the services sector. We estimate UK services PMI, covering the largest share of the economy, rebounded in August following the post-Brexit decline in July.
We expect the ECB to remain on hold at next week's meeting. Initial figures suggest resilience in economic sentiment following the Brexit vote, so we expect the ECB to keep its current stance.
In China, we are due to get both consumer and producer price inflation. We estimate CPI remained subdued at 1.8% y/y, while PPI is likely to have moved higher on the back of rising commodity prices.
In Scandinavia, we do not expect the Riksbank to make any changes at Wednesday's monetary policy meeting. We expect the Norwegian inflation figure released next week to have come down to 3.4% y/y in August following a surprisingly large jump in prices in July.
Global macro and market themes
With the relatively weak job report today and weak ISM number yesterday, we believe the Fed is unlikely to hike rates in September.
Yet, the market is still assigning a relatively high probability of a hike in 2016.
In our view, the prospects for emerging markets remain decent, especially with the Fed likely to remain on hold at least until end-2016.
We believe China will continue to act as a positive impetus for the rest of the emerging markets space in 2016, although less so in 2017.
We remain Overweight emerging markets versus developed market equities.
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