On the global scene, the G20 meeting in Shanghai started today and will run over the weekend. The meeting will be very interesting in light of the recent market turmoil and the concerns about global economic growth and central bank fatigue (see Market Turmoil, Policy Responses and Market Implications , 12 February).
In the US , focus next week will be on the ISM figures, not least the jobs report due on Friday. We estimate non-farm payrolls rose 160,000 in February, meaning employment continues to grow faster than the trend growth in the labour force, putting additional downward pressure on the unemployment rate. Key for the Fed is average hourly earnings.
The key thing to watch in China will be PMIs for February. We look for a slight rise in both the Caixin and in the official PMI manufacturing indices.
In the euro area , we are due to get the euro area flash HICP inflation numbers for February on Monday, which we expect to decline back to -0.1% y/y, due mainly to the lower oil price. We also expect the unemployment rate to continue declining.
In the Scandis , focus will be on GDP figures released in Denmark and Sweden . Danish currency reserves figures will also attract attention. In Norway , retail sales figures and the manufacturing PMI releases are due.
Global macro and market themes
Market turmoil and weaker-than-expected data have taken their toll on the growth outlook.
However, we do not expect major growth slowdowns in the major economies.
We do not expect the G20 meeting to commit to any major concrete policy initiatives.
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