Market movers ahead
In the US, we believe ISM manufacturing data released on Monday is likely to increase to an even higher level in line with regional PMIs.
Next week's US labour market report will, in our view, be strongly affected by September's hurricanes and will not reflect underlying labour market strength.
In the euro area, we expect the unemployment rate to continue to decline but we still observe slack in the labour market due to a lack of productivity growth, low inflation expectations and a still high share of involuntary part-timers.
At the UK Conservative Party Conference, we expect Theresa May to deliver a speech on Brexit underlining that the UK is leaving the single market and the customs union.
We expect Chinese manufacturing PMI to decline, due among other things to changing seasonal patterns.
In Norway, we expect housing prices to continue to decline, as a sharp rise in the number of properties on the market, especially in Oslo, will probably put a damper on prices.
Global macro and market themes
The natural rate of interest is key to understanding monetary policy setting in the long run, while the Phillips curve has explanatory power in the short term.
The Bank of England's Mark Carney argues that structural factors continue to weigh on the natural rate but that it is increasing everywhere due to the global recovery.
While we still expect long-term yields to increase, as central banks have turned more hawkish, there is a limit to how high they can move due to the low natural rate.
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