Market Movers ahead
In the US, the most important release will be the jobs report for June on Friday 6 July, but the week also brings FOMC meetings minutes.
In the euro area, German politics will again take centre stage after ongoing squabbles within the governing coalition over migration policy.
US-China trade tension might escalate further after tariffs take effect on 6 July.
In Scandinavia, the Riksbank meeting will be the key event.
Note that our Weekly Focus publication will take a summer break until 10 August.
Global macro and market themes
Trump blinked but further escalation of the trade tensions is still our baseline scenario ahead of 6 July.
Merkel and Europe are facing a pivotal weekend following the EU summit.
Oil prices have surged to multi-year highs.
Confidence indicators have moderated further recently.
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