We expect the ECB to express a patient view. Given the market pricing of additional rate cuts, the meeting could disappoint if Mario Draghi does not point to further rate cuts.
Chinese Q4 15 GDP figures are due to be released on Tuesday - we estimate a positive number, supporting our analysis that growth in China should gradually improve in 2016.
US CPI inflation data for December is due out on Wednesday. We estimate that CPI core inflation increased to 2.1% y/y.
We expect manufacturing PMIs to indicate that the improving trend in the euro area will continue, swayed by the increasing order-inventory balance, which is now at its highest in almost five years.
Global macro and market themes
China and oil have been driving the sell-off in risky assets.
Lower oil prices reflect supply factors as well as expectations of falling demand.
China needs a weaker exchange rate - EUR/USD will rise this year no matter where oil prices trades.
European equities appear oversold given growth momentum.
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