Weekly Focus - Another Central Bank Turns Very Dovish

Published 03/08/2019, 02:10 AM
EUR/USD
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Market movers ahead

US retail sales will be important to gauge the strength of the US economy currently. We will also keep an eye on US CPI inflation and durable goods orders.

On Brexit, three important votes are coming up.

US-China trade talks are entering the final stage, which is also going to be the most difficult one, as challenges remain. The longer it takes to announce a summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, the more markets will start to worry.

In the euro area, focus is set to be on industrial production data, which fell sharply in December. Car sales should provide insight into how much of a rebound we can expect from the slump in 2018.

The Bank of Japan is set to keep its policy stance unchanged at its meeting on Friday.

In Scandinavia, focus turns to Swedish inflation numbers and Norway's regional network survey.

Weekly wrap-up

The ECB joined the Fed in taking a surprisingly dovish twist in its policy guidance and surprised the markets and ourselves by announcing a new series of liquidity measures (TLTRO3s). We no longer expect an ECB hike within our 12-month forecast horizon.

EUR/USD and bond yields moved sharply lower on the surprise move by the ECB. Lower risk appetite added to the downward move in yields.

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