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Weekly Economic Watch‏

ByThe National Bank of Canada
Published 11/10/2013, 05:13 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

Canada – Employment rose 13.2K in October according to the Labour Force survey. That was near consensus expectations which were at +11K. Both the unemployment rate (6.9%) and the participation rate (66.4%) remained unchanged. There were strong gains in the public sector (+47K), which more than offset the 22K drop in private sector employment. Paid-employment rose 25K, while the ranks of the “self-employeds” fell 12K. All of the job gains were in the services sector (+25K) with strength in accommodation, health care and public administration which more than offset declines business, building & other support svc and trade. Goods sector employment was down (-12K). All of the job gains in October were full-time (+16K), which offset a modest decline in part-time (-12K). Total hours worked jumped 0.4% after a 0.2% decline in October.

As we had expected, private sector employment declined sharply (-22K) after outsized gains in the previous months. Since we are not expecting government to be a strong contributor to employment growth, private sector jobs creation will be crucial to the overall performance of the Canadian labour market over the coming months.

Unfortunately, the Bank of Canada Autumn Business Outlook Survey and the recent disappointing profit environment suggest softer employment intentions among firms. With only one month of data in the quarter, aggregate hours are on track to grow 1.5% annualized in Q4 (after a 1.5% increase in Q3), while wages are tracking 2.8%, an acceleration from the prior quarter’s pace of 2.1%. Note, however, that the correlation of LFS hours with GDP isn’t perfect. We continue to expect soft growth in the final quarter of the year.

To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below.

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