Canada – The consumer price index was down 0.2% in September, allowing the year-on-year inflation rate to fall to 1.0%. In seasonally adjusted terms, CPI fell 0.2% driven by the transportation component (read gasoline) which slumped 1.4%, although there was also a small decline for clothing/footwear (-0.1%), while shelter prices were flat. Those more than offset price gains in the other five broad categories. The core CPI, which excludes eight of the most volatile items, was up 0.2% in September (+0.1% in seasonally adjusted terms). That allowed the year-on-year core inflation rate to remain unchanged at 2.1%.
Wholesale sales fell 0.1% in August, due to declines for autos/parts, food/beverage, personal/household goods and machinery/equipment which more than offset increases for building materials, farm products and miscellaneous items. Inventories were up 0.6%. In real terms, wholesale sales fell 0.5%.
Retail sales rose a consensus-topping 0.5% in August after an upwardly revised 0.6% increase the prior month. In August, sales were up in four of the 11 subsectors, including a 2% jump for autos/parts dealers. Savings from low pump prices and the checks sent out by Ottawa in July and August (expanded Universal child care benefit) seem to be supporting spending. Excluding autos, however, sales were flat. Gains registered by sellers of food, furniture, and clothing, were offset by lower sales elsewhere including gasoline, the latter courtesy of lower pump prices. Sales were up in seven of the 10 provinces in August. On a year-on-year basis, BC remains in the lead with sales up 7% followed by Ontario at 5.4%. The worst performers on a year-on-year basis are Alberta (-2.9%) and Saskatchewan (-2.3%), not surprising given job losses stemming from the oil shock. In real terms, Canadian retail sales rose 0.7% in August, the biggest increase since February. So much so that retail volumes are on track to grow over 3% annualized in Q3, i.e. about double the pace seen in the prior quarter.
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