GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook
GBP/JPY's fall from 162.80 continued last week even though downside momentum was unconvincing. Deeper decline is expected this week for retesting 151.64 first. Break will extend larger decline from 195.86 to next long term fibonacci level at 147.01. On the upside, though, break of 156.65 resistance will suggests that fall from 162.80 has completed and turn bias back to the upside.
In the bigger picture, fall from 195.86 medium term is viewed as a corrective move. There is no confirmation of completion yet and GBP/JPY might still target 61.8% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 147.01. We'll start to look for reversal signal below there. However, break of 164.09 will suggests that decline is finished and open up the case for rebound to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 151.64 at 178.96 and above.
In the longer term picture, the up trend from 116.83 long term bottom made a medium term top at 195.86 already. We'd expect price actions from 195.86 to develop into a corrective pattern. Such up trend should resume at a later stage after the correction completes.
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook
EUR/JPY's fall and breach of 121.67 low last week suggests that larger decline is resuming. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Sustained trading below 121.67 will target next projection level at 117.37. However, above 123.49 resistance will dampen this bearish view and bring another rebound back towards 126.46 resistance.
In the bigger picture, medium term correction from 149.76 is still in progress and would extend to 100% projection of 149.76 to 126.09 from 141.04 at 117.37. We'll look for bottoming signal around 61.8% retracement of 94.11 to 149.76 at 115.36. Break of 126.46 resistance, however, will suggest that the correct has completed earlier than we thought and turn outlook bullish.
In the long term picture, price actions from 149.76 medium term are still viewed as developing into a corrective move. But deeper than expected fall is now opening the case that it's part of a long term sideway pattern from 88.96, rather than a correction to rise from 94.11. In any case, we'll look at the structure and make an assessment at a later stage.
