GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook
GBP/JPY surged to as high as 184.45 last week before forming a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations first. As long as 180.64 minor support holds, further rise is expected. As noted before, the consolidation pattern from 189.70 could have completed with three waves down to 174.86 already. Decisive break of 184.99 resistance will confirm this case and would extend the larger up trend through 189.70 high. Though, below 180.64 minor support will likely bring another fall before the consolidation pattern completes.
In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the pattern from 189.70 so far argues that long term up trend from 116.83 hasn't completed yet. This is supported by the strong support seen from 55 weeks EMA. Break of 189.70 will confirm resumption and would target 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to 200 psychological level. Nonetheless, sustained break of 174.86 will turn focus back to 168.01 key structure support instead.
In the longer term picture, the up trend from 116.83 long term bottom is still in progress. Current rise could likely at least have a test on 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80 in medium term. Break of 168.01 will bring deeper correction first.
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook
The rise from 126.09 in EUR/JPY accelerated last week and the development confirmed that fall from 149.76 has completed at 126.09 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 136.67 resistance. Decisive break there will pave the way for strong raise to 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 126.09 at 140.71. On the downside, below 132.87 minor support will turn bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 149.76 medium term top is viewed as corrective. Strong rebound after failing to sustain below 38.2% retracement of 94.11 to 149.76 at 128.50 argues that it's developing into a sideway pattern. We'd expect more range trading between 126.09 and 149.76 in medium term. And that should then be followed by an upside breakout at a later stage.
In the long term picture, rebound from 94.11 long term bottom is having an impulsive look and thus, indicates that it's far from being finished. Such up trend is expected to resume after the consolidation pattern from 149.76 completes.
