Q3 GDP growth in the US is estimated to have been revised up from 1.5% q/q AR to around 2.0% q/q AR as data have been better than expected since the first release, indicating that growth was not that bad in Q3 after all. German GDP components are due, which are expected to show that Q3 growth in Germany was driven by strong growth in private consumption. The data for the decomposition could still attract some attention as it will reveal the degree of weakness in exports and investments.
We expect German IFO expectations to have improved slightly in November supported by signs of stabilisation in China, the weaker euro and less financial stress.
The conference board consumer confidence index in the US is expected to have risen, signalling that US consumers are still optimistic.
BoE members Carney, Haldane, Forbes and Vlieghe testify for the UK Treasury Committee and ECB's Mersch also speaks today. We will listen carefully to what they have to say on monetary policy.
Today's oil investment survey out of Norway will be one of several key releases ahead of Norges Bank's monetary policy meeting on 17 December. We tentatively predict that the survey will now point to a 10% decline in investment in 2016, which would be neutral not only for us but also for Norges Bank. For more details see Scandi Markets.
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