Week in Review Part III: Foreign Affairs

: Sunday is the first round of balloting in the presidential vote and as no candidate is going to capture 50%, the runoff among the first two vote getters is May 6; which means that barring a cataclysmic upset (which has happened before in France), Socialist Party candidate Francois Hollande will be squaring off against President Nicolas Sarkozy.

The last polls had Hollande with a 29.5-27.5 lead in the first round (BVA poll…29-24, Hollande, in a CSA survey), with Hollande then winning the second round 56-44 (BVA) and 58-42 (CSA).

National Front candidate Marine Le Pen was in third in both polls at 17%.

Regardless of who ends up the victor on May 6, the loser is the French people as both Hollande and Sarkozy have failed to address the very real economic dangers the country faces, and/or are promoting policies that will only make things far worse, such as Hollande’s proposal for a 75% tax rate on those earning more than 1 million euro ($1.3 million), which would spark a wealth exodus of immense proportions.

Then again, when Hollande proclaims, “Why continue what has failed?” he has a point. Sarkozy has virtually zero successes he can point to outside cooperation with Germany on European Union issues.

At the same time, Hollande’s proposal to renegotiate the EU fiscal compact that is designed to limit government overspending would be a disaster of a different kind at this point. Hollande, aside from his income redistribution platform, seeks to add 60,000 civil servants and teachers, as well as reverse Sarkozy’s minimal increase in the pension age from 60 to 62.

Meanwhile, Sarkozy is pandering to every voting bloc possible and is threatening his people with the example of Spain. ‘See, this is where we’ll be if you elect Hollande. Look at Spain’s seven-year Socialist experiment.’

Iran: What a joke. The P5+1 (once again…the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany) met with the Iranians last weekend in Istanbul and Catherine Ashton, the inept foreign policy chief for the European Union, described the talks as constructive. “We want to now move to a sustained process of dialogue.” The parties agreed to meet in five weeks in Baghdad, May 23. Not in two weeks, but five.

A U.S. official said, “While the atmosphere today was positive and good enough to warrant a second round, we continue to stress that there is urgency for concrete progress and that the window for diplomatic resolution is closing.” But why five weeks?

The chief Iranian negotiator said Iran had no intention of accepting any demand to halt plans to enrich uranium to 20%, which is far beyond the quality needed to generate electricity. “The next talks should be based on confidence building measures which would build the confidence of Iranians.”
You’re telling us what to do?!

Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said his nation was prepared to resolve the nuclear dispute in Baghdad, hinting that the chief negotiator was wrong…that Iran might be willing to change its enrichment policy.

But don’t you see? This is all part of Iran’s stall game. Months and months of negotiations as to just how Iran might change its policy, and where the current 20% enriched uranium would go, and how, and on and on.

If the Washington Post’s David Ignatius is right, we have a lot to fear, Mr. Ignatius believing that a deal is imminent.

“The Iranians seem to be preparing their public for a deal that limits enrichment while preserving the right to enrich. In an interview Monday with the Iranian student news agency, Foreign Minister (Salehi) explained that ‘making 20% fuel is our right,’ but that ‘if they guarantee that they will provide us with the different levels of enriched fuel that we need, then that would be another issue.’ Salehi seemed to be reviving a 2009 Turkish plan to export Iran’s low-enriched uranium abroad, and receive back 20% fuel for its Tehran research reactor, supposedly to make the isotopes. That earlier deal collapsed because of opposition from (Ayatollah) Khamenei, who apparently is now ready to bargain….

“Translation: The Iranians expect to be paid, in ‘step-by-step’ increments, as they move toward a deal. At a minimum, they will want a delay of the U.S. and European sanctions that take full effect June 28 and July 1, respectively. That timetable gives the West leverage, too – to keep the threatened sanctions in place until the Iranians have made the required concessions. It’s a well-prepared negotiation, in other words, and it seems likely to succeed if each side keeps to the script and doesn’t muff its lines.”

This is unadulterated bulls---. Ayatollah Khamenei, peacemaker? Not one word in Ignatius’ widely read column, syndicated around the world, on Iran’s chief export, terror, and the hundreds of American lives that have been lost to Iran and its acolytes.

I’m sorry…the regime must be taken out, preferably through the toughest sanctions imaginable, as the U.S. Congress proposes (not the president).

But at the end of the day, the sands of the hourglass are dwindling to a precious few and the P5+1 is looking more and more like it wants to be party to Iran’s lies and deceit (as Ehud Barak knows all too well…see below).

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said of the Istanbul, and soon Baghdad, talks, “My initial impression is that Iran has been given a freebie.” Iran now has “five weeks to continue enrichment without any limitation, any inhibition. I think Iran should take immediate steps to stop all enrichment, take out all enrichment material and dismantle the nuclear facility at Qom.”

President Obama replied the U.S. hasn’t “given away anything” to Iran.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak also said Iran bought five weeks.

“I am realistic enough to not be so optimistic about talks with Iran. The Iranians have a history of deceiving the world, something through steps like this. So we are a little bit skeptical.”

Barak mentioned a Muslim notion called Takia, which he said grants Muslims the right to lie in order to deceive non-Muslims, for the sake of the religion.

“It is clear that the Iranians are focused on reaching nuclear capability, and they are ready to defy and deceive the whole world,” he said.

Barak added he did not think Ayatollah Khamenei had yet given the order to start actually building a bomb, but only because he feared a military strike.

Barak also reiterated that “all options are on the table,” meaning it was still possible Israel could strike before the Baghdad talks. [Yoni Dayan / Jerusalem Post]

Israel’s ambassador to the United States, Michael Oren, told the Jerusalem Post:

“We have to prevent a second Holocaust from happening. When Iran says it wants to destroy the state of Israel, which just happens to have six million Jews, we have to take it seriously.”

Oren stressed that “we can never compare the Holocaust to anything. It’s in a league by itself. It’s uniquely horrific.”

But he added, “We also have to look for similarities.”

Egypt: I told you last time the presidential election here, slated for May 23-24, was highly confusing. Now, after the five-judge High Election Commission eliminated 10 candidates, including the three most prominent, it becomes even more so. I told you before that ultraconservative Salafist Hazem Abu Ismail faced elimination because his mother was an American citizen and the judges so ruled after a lower court approved his bid; and that Muslim Brotherhood candidate Khairat el-Shater faced problems due to a past criminal conviction for which he hadn’t been formally pardoned, and so the judges ruled against him as well.

The case of former Mubarak intelligence chief and vice president Omar Suleiman was different. Suleiman was ruled ineligible because he fell 31 signatures short of the 30,000 needed to get on the ballot. At least that is one explanation I saw. Understand that the judges were all picked by Mubarak so for them to deny the favored candidate of the old establishment shows an encouraging amount of independence.

But, the final list of candidates is to be revealed April 26 and while all three appealed, and were then turned down again, some say Suleiman may yet be on the approved list.

After Friday prayers, large demonstrations took place in Tahrir Square to dispute the judges’ ruling, though in the case of Abu Ismail, his supporters have absolutely no leg to stand on.

What you’re now left with is Amr Moussa, a former diplomat and secretary-general of the Arab League who is preferred by the ruling Supreme Council and is known for his hardline stance on Israel, and Mohammed Mursi, the Muslim Brotherhood’s backup candidate. At least as of today, those would be the main frontrunners.

But then you still have confusion over the new constitution and who is to write it, this after a court disbanded the first panel, which the Brotherhood was also deeply unhappy about. Shater has accused the Supreme (military) Council of attempting to fix the election and the constitution.

It’s really all pretty fascinating, if it wasn’t so dangerous.

Syria: The cease-fire has been an unmitigated disaster. Sure, the level of killing is down some, but Syria hasn’t complied in terms of moving its military out of the cities as was part of the agreement and UN General-Secretary Ban Ki Moon wants 300 observers in the country, though this would require Syrian government support and security.

To give you a sense of President Bashar Assad’s campaign of terror, some Syrian Army defectors talked to the London Times’ Martin Fletcher, telling him the Syrian military wanted for nothing when it came to weapons, equipment and food. “We had everything in the army…The Russians keep delivering supplies,” the sergeant said.

Another said, “The leadership told us everything we loot is ours. They told us we were free to take anything and nobody will punish you.”

“Omar” said he defected after being ordered to fire on civilians. He knew five colleagues who had been killed by military security forces, including a friend who was shot in the back for refusing to fire on protesters.

“If you hesitate to shoot, they shoot you right away. You have only seconds,” said another young defector.

North Korea: Kim Jong Un gave his first public address, which is highly significant. Consider that his father, Kim Jong Il, gave just one his entire tenure. That’s kind of startling. They also say the kid seemed relaxed and comfortable in his 20-minute speech before a crowd celebrating Kim Il Sung’s 100th birthday, and the new leader’s address was carried live on television.

In the speech, Kim vowed to keep the military as the top priority, with the North earlier declaring that following its failed rocket launch, it was ready “to take retaliatory measures” after the UN Security Council condemned the test as a “serious violation” of UN sanctions, while demanding Pyongyang suspend all further activities related to the ballistic missile program, let alone all work on its nuclear program.

But it was not even a full resolution, which carries more force, and instead a presidential declaration; not that the UN’s resolutions are worth the paper they’re written on. China wouldn’t agree to a fuller condemnation.

Bottom line, the February deal between the U.S. and North Korea, exchanging food for a suspension of all activity at Yongbyon and the allowance of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors back into the country is off.

Separately, at the military parade on Sunday, the North unveiled a large new missile that was conveyed on a road-mobile launch platform, which observers said shares many similarities to a transporter-erector-launcher developed by China; so the United Nations is probing whether China exported the technology to North Korea in contravention of multiple UN Security Council resolutions. Nothing, of course, will happen to China even if they did break the rules. [U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told House lawmakers China was indeed supplying ballistic missile support.]

China: The death of British businessman Neil Heywood last November, now tied to disgraced politician Bo Xilai’s wife, Gu Kailai, is getting murkier and murkier, with a senior Chinese journalist telling the BBC that Heywood’s death, initially declared to be the result of alcohol poisoning, was covered up immediately; after police realized the case could be tied to Bo and Gu.

It was at this point that Chongqing police chief Wang Lijun told his boss, Bo, that he believed Gu may have been involved in the murder. Gu, it seems, was not having an affair with Heywood as first reported, but rather she was upset he spurned her plan to launder massive amounts of funds through Heywood and she became afraid Heywood was about to tell authorities.

Wang, upon being sacked, sought refuge in the American consulate in Chengdu, where he reportedly told U.S. authorities about the murder and attempted to defect.

But as the New York Times reports, the Obama administration wanted nothing to do with the case. Wang was eventually turned over to Beijing police, instead of the Chongqing authorities who wanted his head, but no one knows what has happened to Wang in Beijing, so the U.S. has its prints all over this case as much as British authorities do, they being blamed for not following up on Heywood’s death right away. Wang could be put to death for giving secrets to the United States.

This, friends, is a freakin’ mess…and also right out of the movies. But it’s the biggest political scandal to hit China in years and it comes smack in the midst of a leadership change.
Bret Stephens / Wall Street Journal

“In the case of Mr. Bo and his wife, the regime will probably manage it: Show trials are, after all, a Communist specialty. Other party chieftains will probably also get the message to keep a low profile for themselves and their families, at least for the time being.

“But patterns of authoritarian behavior – particularly nepotism, corruption and rent-seeking – are hard to put down in the absence of the accountability mechanisms China so notably lacks: a vigorous free media, periodic elections, economic competition, a bias toward transparency, the rule of law. Instead, the only mechanism the regime has is the purge. It may work in the short-term for eliminating enemies or satisfying bloodlusts. It won’t work in the long-term for shoring up the regime’s waning legitimacy.

“Meantime, China’s economy is slowing as income inequality grows – historically an explosive combination. Foreigners in China report that trying to do business is often futile when it isn’t outright dangerous. Wealthy Chinese are leaving the country in growing numbers, a de facto vote of no-confidence in an economy whose prospects are supposedly limitless.

“This is not a country on its way to global supremacy. The Bo scandal may pass soon enough, but what it has revealed will prove increasingly difficult to ignore.”

Afghanistan: The Taliban’s sophisticated attack last weekend on Kabul and other provinces was impressive in its scope, with the assault starting precisely at 1:45 p.m. But, equally impressive, was the performance of Afghan security forces, a good sign. In the end, it appears 39 militants were killed, five civilians, and 11 Afghan troops.

But, as NATO reached agreement with the Afghan government on both a timetable for withdrawal and needed ongoing support to maintain the security forces (an estimated $4 billion a year, for which the U.S. will probably commit $2.2 billion of it; the Afghans picking up $500 million and the rest of NATO the remaining $1.3 billion), the issue is, what happens when NATO pulls out? Heck, for starters, the Aussies are pulling out their 1,500 troops by year end, a full year early.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said there should be no timetable; that NATO forces shouldn’t withdraw until Afghan government forces are fully ready.

India: New Delhi successfully tested an advanced long-range missile that extends the range of India’s nuclear deterrent to 5,000 km (3,100 miles), meaning it could reach Beijing and Shanghai for the first time…not that the Agni-V is operationally capable of sending a nuclear warhead as yet. China’s state-run Global Times warned India not to be “arrogant during disputes with China. India should be clear that China’s nuclear power is stronger and more reliable. For the foreseeable future, India would stand no chance in an overall arms race with China.” Notice how, otherwise, no one in the world complained about India’s test, compared to North Korea’s failed one.

Mexico / The Americas: Forget the largely failed Summit of the Americas in Cartagena; did you see Mexican customs inspectors seized 268,000 rounds of assault rifle ammunition found in a truck at a border crossing in Ciudad Juarez?! The guy from Dallas was trying to drive across from El Paso and after the fellow said he had no goods to declare, a gamma-ray inspection of the truck’s cargo compartment revealed metal canisters holding the ammo, the largest such seizure in memory.

As for the Summit, forget the Secret Service distraction, albeit a major one. President Obama did reach an accord over labor rights with Colombian President Santos, clearing the way for the free trade agreement that was previously concluded between our two nations to take effect May 15. But he angered American union leaders in the process, while at the same time refusing to sign a statement that would have called for the next summit meeting to include Cuba, so he avoided antagonizing his Cuban-American base in Florida…think November.

Even Mexico and Brazil said Cuba should attend the next summit in 2015. Of course it should.