Week in Review Part III: Foreign Affairs

North Korea: With the official period of mourning for Kim Jong Il finally over, the National Defense Commission issued a statement.

“The veritable sea of tears shed by the army and people of the DPRK will turn into that of retaliatory fire to burn all the group of traitors to the last one. The DPRK will have no dealings with the Lee Myung Bak group of traitors forever.”

Very nice, commies. A classy statement, in speaking of South Korean President Lee and his government.

As for the pudgy one, Kim Jong Un, he appeared in the middle of all the key shots the past few days, but now the real guessing game begins. How quickly can he win over the allegiance of the North’s key military leaders, the only power group that matters? The last sentence of the official statement said Pyongyang “closely rallied behind the dear respected Kim Jong Un.” [North Korea is also slated to release its New Year statement Jan. 1, while President Lee addresses his people on Jan. 2]

Since the time of Kim Jong Il’s death, the state has made sure the world knows that the main ideology is “songun,” or “military first.” We all just wait to see if the 20-something leader feels compelled to prove his manhood at the expense of the South, or by firing a rocket or two over Japan. Plus, despite the signs of stability, there are undoubtedly tensions behind the scenes among the key players in Pyongyang.

Kim, by the way, picked up the names of “supreme commander,” “supreme leader of the revolutionary armed forces” and “great successor” this week. “Supreme leader” is the one that will stick; as the little sadist (according to some intelligence reports) is placed in charge of the ruling party, military and people.

Iran: The official Iranian news agency IRNA quoted Iran’s First Vice President Mohammed Reza Rahimi as saying, “If they [the West] impose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz,” through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil transits (a third of all seaborne oil). “Our enemies will give up on their plots against Iran only if we give them a firm and strong lesson,” he added.

Were the Strait to be shut for more than a few days, the world would almost immediately be thrown into Depression. But it’s a smokescreen, set up by Iran to divert attention from Tehran’s non-compliance with U.N. resolutions to cease and desist with its uranium enrichment efforts and to open up to U.N. nuclear inspectors and investigators.

For their part, EU officials are to decide, possibly in January, whether to take the 450,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil, about 18% of Iran’s exports, much of which go to China and India.

But Iran itself would suffer immensely economically if it attempted to seal off the Strait, and such a move could spark revolution in the streets (yippee!).

As for the U.S., the Pentagon made it clear that Iran shouldn’t try closing it, with a spokesperson saying that for its part, “The U.S. Navy is a flexible, multi-capable force committed to regional security and stability, always ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation.”

Of course the big risk at this moment is that Iran miscalculates, such as if its naval vessels harassed U.S. or NATO warships and accidentally (or intentionally) fired on them.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“The Hormuz flap should also underscore the strategic damage that would result if Iran does get the bomb. Fortified by a nuclear threat, the mullahs would be more willing to blackmail their neighbors and press for regional dominance. Would the U.S. dare resist Iranian aggression if it meant putting American forces at risk of a nuclear reprisal? Better to act now to stop Iran before we have to answer that terrible question.”

Syria: The Arab League sent its observer mission to the country, drawing out tens of thousands of protesters who felt emboldened by the monitors’ presence, but then the head of the observers in the violence-torn city of Homs described the situation there as “nothing frightening”! You can’t make this stuff up. It turns out international human rights groups had questioned the selection of the guy, a former Sudanese military intelligence chief, and for good reason. What a disgrace. I mean it was Sudan, after all, that defied an international war crimes tribunal so how was this character (Gen. Mohammed Ahmed al-Dabi) expected to take a tough stance against Bashar al-Assad?

So far only 60 of 500 expected observers have traveled to the country, while the killing in Homs, and elsewhere around the country, including in Damascus, continued. [Another two dozen were apparently killed on Friday with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets.]

Egypt: In a totally outrageous and despicable act, Egyptian police raided the offices of more than a dozen human rights organizations in Cairo on Thursday, including two leading American groups; the National Democratic Institute and the International Republican Institute, both funded by the Democratic and Republican parties. The State Department responded that the $1.3 billion in annual military aid the U.S. gives to Egypt could be in jeopardy.

The ruling military council has blamed the rights groups for the political turmoil that has rocked the country since President Mubarak was overthrown. While no arrests were made, police took away computers and boxes of files.

Editorial / Washington Post

“Thursday’s raid consequently represents a frontal provocation by the ruling military council to the Obama administration, which has waffled between supporting a transition to democratic civilian rule in Egypt and appeasing the generals. The military is attempting to rally waning domestic support by blaming domestic disorder on sinister ‘foreign hands’; it is also seeking to destroy liberal, pro-democracy groups that have resisted its attempts to perpetuate its power indefinitely.

“The campaign against foreign funding is a startling example of the military’s illogic and breathtaking arrogance. The premise is that civilian groups that receive a few million dollars in U.S. or European funding are traitorous – while the military is justified in accepting $1.3 billion in annual U.S. subsidies. Also unquestioned is the substantial funding that reportedly flows from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Arab states to the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamic groups, which mounted by far the best-organized campaigns in this month’s elections.

“The Obama administration may have inadvertently encouraged the military council to believe it could get away with this repression by stoutly resisting initiatives in Congress to link U.S. military aid to a democratic transition….

“(It) is past time for the administration – and Congress – to stop treating aid to the Egyptian military as inviolate and related only to peace with Israel. The military must get the message that continued funding will depend on whether a full transition to civilian democratic rule takes place in the coming year. That means, among other things, an immediate end to the harassment of pro-democracy and human rights groups.”

With all of the above, is it any wonder Egypt’s economy is dead in the water? Tourism fell 10.4% and manufacturing shrank 3.3% in the quarter ended Sept. 30. Regarding the former, laughably, Egypt expects tourism revenues to rebound by more than a third in 2012.

Iraq: Military Times published its final casualty statistics for Operation Iraqi Freedom / New Dawn, as the last U.S. combat troops exited.

March 19, 2003-Dec. 21, 2011

Killed: 4,474
Wounded in action: 32,336
Defense Department civilian deaths: 13

[Afghanistan’s toll is 1,843 killed as of Dec. 21 (at least three more died since then), with 15,138 wounded. Britain lost its 393rd serviceman over the holidays. That’s no small number for our great friends.]

Military Times [which is Army Times, Navy Times, Air Force Times, and Marine Corps Times] conducted an online survey of those who had deployed to Iraq in the last nine years for a final assessment of the war:

“We stayed for the right amount of time” 11%
“We’re leaving too soon” 21%
“We stayed too long” 26%
“We should not have gone to war in Iraq” 42%

As for the crisis facing Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the potential dissolution of the government, radical Shiite Moqtada al-Sadr called for new polls, as the Sunni-dominated provinces seek greater autonomy from the central government.

Meanwhile, Turkey botched an air strike aimed at Kurdish militants near the country’s border with Iraq, killing 35 civilians. At least the Ankara government immediately admitted it was a mistake, saying the victims were smugglers, not terrorists.

Pakistan: President Zardari said Tuesday that his countrymen need to guard against what he called anti-democratic conspiracies, a reference to the tensions between the government and the military. Tuesday was the fourth anniversary of the assassination of Zardari’s wife, Benazir Bhutto. Pakistan is still being roiled by a secret memo Zardari allegedly backed that asked for Washington’s help in stopping a military coup in the wake of the raid that took out Osama bin Laden.

National elections are not due until 2013 but one politician is starting to see his support soar, a former cricket superstar, Imran Khan. Khan has been a politician for some time but never captured the imagination of the masses, though he’s now riding a wave of disillusionment. The thing is no one knows what the heck he stands for, though he recently called for a halt to U.S. drone attacks on militants inside Pakistani territory.

Israel: The Palestinian Authority is riven with dissension. Some members want the Palestinians to cancel agreements signed between the PLO and Israel, while others are miffed at Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas for agreeing to incorporate Hamas into the PLO. Worrisomely, Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohammed Badei (we will undoubtedly get to know this name better) warmly embraced Hamas Prime Minister Haniyeh in Cairo. Haniyeh said in his formal statement there:

“The Islamic resistance movement of Hamas, by definition, is a jihadist movement by the Muslim Brotherhood, Palestinian on the surface, Islamic at its core and its goal is liberation.” [Jerusalem Post]

Israel, though, has its hands full these days with its own ultra-Orthodox extremists, who have been clashing with police in the town of Beit Shemesh, near Jerusalem. Secular Jews and ultra-Orthodox men are coming to blows over the latter’s strict gender segregation and ‘modest’ dress for women. I really have to bite my tongue on this one.

Libya: Despite the solid news on the oil front mentioned above, if you think the transition to democratic rule in Libya is proceeding swimmingly, just understand that Saif al-Islam, Colonel Gaddafi’s son, is still being held by the local militia that captured him, they being unwilling to turn him over to the central government.

Russia: 50-60,000 protested in Moscow on Christmas Eve (our Christmas Eve, Russians celebrate Orthodox Christmas Jan. 7), a continuation of the demonstrations calling for free elections and an end to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s 12-year rule. Many shouted “We are the Power!” The protest was said to be far better organized than the one held two weeks earlier following the fraudulent Duma vote of Dec. 4. Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, now 80, said on a Moscow radio station, “I’m happy that I have lived to see the people waking up. This raises big hopes.” Gorby is calling on Putin to give up power as he did on Dec. 25, 1991, peacefully.

But there remains no central leadership for the protesters, nor is there a candidate who poses a serious challenge to Putin in the March presidential election.

In response to the Saturday protest, Putin at first dismissed calls for a review of the Dec. 4 vote, telling supporters, “The elections are over. The parliament has started its work and a speaker has been elected. There can be no talk of any review.”

But the next day he said “dialogue must take place. In what form? I will think about it.” However, he quickly added, “(The opposition) have no common platform, there is no one to talk to.”

If you think that the protesters will eventually carry the day, think again. From a piece by Alexander Golts in the Moscow Times:

“Russian Railways president Vladmir Yakunin sent a strong message of support last week to Russia’s leaders through the company’s newspaper Gudok: ‘On behalf of the entire management of Russian Railways, we support the course of democratic development in Russia, and we consider it impossible not to respond to the unprecedentedly shameless campaign to discredit the Russian state…The filth that has been poured on the state and its leaders [from various opposition groups] has no connection with democracy. Moreover, it is a direct threat to the sovereignty of our country.’”

The not too veiled message being, if you want our goons to help in controlling the demonstrators, we are at your service. Goons from all over will be all too happy to do Putin’s bidding at the appropriate time.

China/Taiwan: It’s suddenly just two weeks away…Taiwan’s crucial presidential election and a sleeper issue for 2012. President Ma Yaing-jeou is vying for a second four-year term and his first term saw significant gains in the island’s relations with the mainland, opening more doors between the two economies.

But the last poll has Ma leading Tsai Ing-wen, 41-35 (in a multi-candidate race), so it’s still tight. Madame Tsai’s pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party is not a favorite of both Washington and Beijing, and if she pulled off an upset, I wouldn’t be in the least bit surprised to see some saber-rattling on the part of China, let alone a pullback on the economic gains between the two.

In other matters, China declared its intention to land an astronaut on the moon, making this official policy, though probably not until after 2020. The last time an astronaut set foot on the moon was 1972, Apollo 17.

On the issue of last July’s Wenzhou high-speed train disaster that killed 40 and cost over $30 million, the government issued a blistering report, much to the surprise of many, citing “primary leadership responsibility for the accident” rests with top Railway Ministry officials. [54 have been disciplined, with some facing criminal charges.]

The senior railway minister, since removed on corruption charges, was blamed for a focus on “speed of the railway project construction and neglect of safety management.” What’s encouraging is the openness of the report.

Lastly, the next president of China, current Vice President Xi Jinping, is coming to the United States late February. This is good. I’m anxious to see the guy myself, for a rather selfish reason. He was formerly governor of Fujian, where my investment is, and I’m convinced management in one shape or form knows him. [Let’s just say I’ve seen clues in my visits there.] That can’t help but be a plus, albeit maybe just a minor one for the time being. The one word we want to see attached to Xi when he gets here is “pragmatist.” I’d also like to see a sense of humor.

India: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is 79 years of age and is clearly not the one to be leading his nation at a critical time in its history. He is simply being overwhelmed as his championing of free-market, anti-corruption policies suffer one setback after another. Corruption allegations in his own cabinet triggered massive protests earlier in the year, and then on Friday he failed to gain passage of his anti-graft bill in parliament (lower house approved it, upper rejected it).

Additionally, the government has not been able to tame inflation, while a reversal on foreign investment has sapped confidence in his leadership.

Bottom line, India becomes a far bigger issue this coming year, with national elections still another two years away.

Yemen: The White House is in a bind over whether to allow President Ali Abdullah Saleh to enter the U.S. for medical treatment. It appears the administration will let Saleh in, but only for “legitimate” care. Saleh has been a longtime ally, though now he’s responsible for the deaths of hundreds of protesters and the situation is being compared to 1979, when an ailing shah of Iran was allowed to fly to the United States for treatment, which led to his overthrow and the storming of the U.S. Embassy.

Bosnia: I’ve said to keep an eye on the Balkans but for once there was a bit of good news. Muslim, Croat and Serb leaders agreed on the formation of a central government after 14 months of crisis. Since elections in October 2010, Bosnia hasn’t had a government. The agreement thus allows the country to press ahead with membership talks with the European Union and NATO.

100,000 died here during the Balkan Wars of the mid-1990s, and it’s still a deeply divided place; two semi-autonomous entities. Hopefully the new set-up works. [I’d be shocked if it did.]

Nigeria: As Pope Benedict XVI was issuing his annual plea for peace as part of his traditional Christmas address, Muslim extremists here were bombing a Catholic church, striking after worshippers celebrated Mass. 35 were killed. A year ago, the same Islamists killed 32 during a Christmas Eve bombing. The Vatican later called the attack a sign of “cruelty and absurd, blind hatred” that shows no respect for human life.

Hundreds of Christians later fled two Nigerian cities in the wake of the violence. Sound familiar? [Nigeria is 50% Muslim, 48% Christian.]
More broadly, it’s time for the 3/4s of Americans who are Christian to speak out more against the Islamist terror, for which I feel like I’ve done my own small part.

Benny Avni / New York Post

“In this year of vast Middle East transformation, the region where Jesus was born is rapidly losing Christians.

“Yes, tourists will continue to flood Bethlehem for the foreseeable future to experience Christmas where the original nativity took place. But if current trends persist, in a decade or less no more Christians will be living in that famous little town – where a few decades ago they made up some 80 percent of the population….

“Now, as Arab Springers seek a better future for the region’s young Muslim and secular multitudes, Christians tremble with fear….

“(While) getting rid of tyrants can’t be a bad thing on balance, the region’s minorities remain skeptical, to say the least. Sure, Christians suffered from discrimination under the old rulers, but they also enjoyed benefits, especially in countries where minority sects held power….

“The grim picture [Ed. such as in Iraq] is repeated across the Mideast whenever Islamists gain strength as the old Arab order ends.

“In Egypt, at the heart of the Arab rebellion, Salafis and other Islamists attacked Coptic churches all year, leaving dozens dead. The Copts are 10 percent of the population, Egyptians since before the birth of Islam. Now those who can pack up and leave….

“It’s a bad omen: Tolerance of Christianity is a test. Only when we see signs that religions can live side by side in the Arab world can we start hoping that women, gays or even Jews will find their footing in the awakening region.

“Put it another way: As long as Christians (and other minorities) feel they need to run for dear life, spring will remain a distant dream for all Arabs.”

New York Archbishop Timothy Dolan / op-ed New York Post

“According to the International Conference on the Freedom of Religion…Christians have become the most persecuted followers of any religion in the world today….

“According to the Frankfurt-based International Society for Human Rights, which describes itself as a ‘secular’ group, 80% of the acts of religious intolerance in the world today are directed against the followers of the One whose birthday we celebrate Sunday.

“As respected international journalist John Allen notes, ‘The threat doesn’t just come from growing Islamic extremism, but a bewildering variety of forces: the rise of Hindu radicalism in India; the policies of officially atheistic regimes in China and North Korea; old tribal and ethnic rivalries in parts of Africa…(And, he adds hauntingly, ‘even secular prejudice against any religious faith in parts of Europe and North America.’)

“Governments stand idly by. Just ask one of the more than 300 Christians injured, or the families and friends of the 27 massacred in Cairo on Oct. 9, in what John Allen calls the Christian Kristallnacht in Egypt, as soldiers not only failed to protect the Christians, but actually participated in the binge of violence.”

[Pope Benedict, health willing, is due in Cuba in March, which could be rather dramatic and potentially regime changing.]