AM Analysis
Wall Street bounced back late last night
Wall Street bounced back late last night after a surge of bargain hunters bought up cheap stock. Encouraging earnings from a number of US corporations also helped the index rebound from its largest selloff in months. The S&P has fallen nearly 3 percent over the previous two sessions, the worse selloff since June 2013. The huge drops have been caused by weaker-than-expected US data and growing concerns about china growth. Asian stocks were also in the black, helped by an advance in Japanese stocks after a number of companies posted better-than-expected earnings.
Meanwhile, European markets are showing a lower open as they fail to follow the US and Asian sessions. The FTSE is indicating a 16 point lower open as investors reduce risk ahead of the ADP Non-farm employment change data. Investors will be watching the data closely to gauge the strength of the US economy and ahead of the Non-Farm payrolls on Friday. The data is also an important milestone for investors to try gauge what the Federal Reserve’s next move will be. A stronger figure could support further stimulus cuts whilst a worse than forecast figure will show a weakening economy and therefore fuel further uncertainty into the markets.
The Euro continued its decline against the Yen, moving toward a 10-week low ahead of European retail sales with many analysts believing retail sales actually contracted during the last month. Sugar maintained its longest rally in four months as drought threatened crop yields in Brazil. Many believe this drought is likely to continue over the next 10 days as the heat wave continues to move in. With Brazil being the world’s top producer and shipper, India have also postponed a plan to boost exports to help ease supply concerns.
– Lee Mumford
PM Analysis
Investors traded cautiously throughout this morning’s session
Investors traded cautiously throughout this morning’s session in anticipation of today’s U.S jobs data. Released at 13:15 GMT, the ADP non-farm employment data proved to be disappointing with the estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month printing at 175k against a 191k estimate. Whilst markets have edged lower, the lack of a reaction would suggest that market participants feared far worse after such a bearish month.
The FTSE 100 looks set to break its five-day losing streak with shares in RSA buoying the index. Volatility - reaching a seven month high yesterday - has finally subdued, suggesting investors’ concerns are easing. This comes despite a report this morning showing UK service had unexpectedly slowed in January. Activity did however remain strong, indicating a strong start to 2014. Today’s data is the last before the Bank of England announces its February rate decision (tomorrow mid-day).
The impressive speed of Britain’s recovery has added pressure on the central bank to raise rates sooner than planned. However, policymakers have stressed that the bank is in no hurry to hike interest rates as inflation has fallen to its target and wage growth remains subdued. Whilst Britain's economy had one of the fastest recoveries among industrialised nations last year, growth has largely been driven by household spending. The Central Bank is making an effort to shift towards business investment and stronger exports.
– Max Cohen
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