We estimate non-farm payrolls increased by 160,000 in March, a bit below the consensus estimate of 175,000.
We estimate the unemployment remained at 4.7% and average hourly earnings increased 0.2% m/m, implying an increase in the wage growth rate of 2.7% y/y.
Although we expect the March report to be somewhat weaker compared to February, this should only be seen as a temporary effect from the weather.
The Fed has continuously highlighted that developments in the labour market are a crucial determinant of the Fed hiking pace. Even if we get a disappointing jobs report for March, we believe that Fed will be relatively calm about the state of the labour market.
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