USD/RUB skyrocketed overnight after Russia invaded Ukraine, hitting a new record high fractionally below the round figure of 90.00. Then, the rate gave back some of those instant gains, but even if it continues lower, as long as it stays above the upside support line drawn from the low of Feb. 16, we will see a positive near-term picture.
The bulls could recharge from near the 80.95 barrier, marked by the inside swing high of Tuesday, and perhaps climb back up to the round number of 90.00. Suppose they are strong enough to overcome that barrier this time around. In that case, they will enter uncharted territory again. With no prior highs or inside swing lows to mark resistance zones, we would consider the next one around the following psychological number, at 95.00.
Shifting attention to our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI, although above 50, turned down and moved back below its 70 line, while the MACD, despite being well above both its zero and trigger lines, shows signs that it could top soon. This adds to our view that the current setback may continue for a while more before the bulls decide to retake the reins.
To examine whether the outlook has turned negative, we would like to see an apparent dip below 78.30. This may confirm the break below the aforementioned upside line and a forthcoming lower low on the 4-hour chart. The bears could initially dive towards the 76.10 level, marked by the low of Monday, the break of which could extend the fall towards the 74.20/65 are, defined as a support by the lows of Feb. 10 and 16 respectively.
Another break below 74.20 could pave the way towards the 72.30 barrier, marked by the low of Nov. 17 or the 70.50 zone, marked by the low of Nov. 10.