The Japanese yen has edged lower on Friday after posting huge gains a day earlier. USD/JPY is trading at 159.16 in the European session, up 0.26% at the time of writing.
Japanese Yen Soars – Soft US Inflation or Intervention?
The US dollar was down against most of the major currencies on Thursday after a softer-than-expected US CPI report raised expectations for a rate cut in September. The yen was the big winner on the day, surging as much as 2.7% and climbing to 157.41 against the dollar. The US dollar recovered some of these losses, and USD/JPY closed at 158.76, down 1.8% on the day.
US inflation fell to 3.0% YoY in June, its lowest level in a year. This was down from 3.3% in May and below the market estimate of 3.1%. The monthly reading was impressive at 0.1%, the first decline since May 2020. Core inflation also eased in June and market expectations for a September rate cut have jumped to 86%, compared to 69% a day just prior to the inflation report.
The Federal Reserve has gone to great lengths to dampen rate-cut expectations but may send a more dovish signal to the markets following the very soft inflation data.
The US dollar had a bad day at the office on Thursday but the extent of the slide against the yen raised suspicions that Tokyo had intervened in the currency markets. A report on Japanese TV said that the government and the Bank of Japan had intervened after the US dollar posted losses following the US inflation report.
Japan’s chief currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, didn’t surprise anyone by saying “no comment” about whether there was an intervention on Thursday. Japan is embroiled in a constant cat-and-mouse game with yen speculators and its policy is to keep market participants in the dark about currency interventions.
With the Bank of Japan signaling that it plans to tighten policy, we can expect additional volatility from the Japanese currency.
USD/JPY Technical
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USD/JPY tested resistance at 159.37. Above, there is resistance at 161.30
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There is support at 156.97