- USD/JPY stuck within 149.55-150.00 area.
- Short-term risk is skewed to the downside.
- ADP Jobs data, ISM non-mfg PMI on the agenda.
USD/JPY is pushing again for a close above the 150.00 mark and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) after closing around the 149.55 base for the third consecutive trading day on Tuesday.
There is no sufficient evidence that the market is oversold. Although the stochastic is set for an upturn above 20, the RSI has yet to reach its 30 oversold level and the MACD is in downward move within negative area. Hence, traders might need stronger increases before boosting their exposure in the market.
A sustainable move above 150.00 and beyond the 20- and 50-day EMAs at 151.28 and 152.00 respectively could see a test near the 153.40 barrier. The bulls must breach the latter to advance toward the 156.00 resistance.
However, should the bears successfully claim the 149.55 floor, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous uptrend could come first into play at 148.15. A step lower could squeeze the price straight to the 61.8% Fibonacci mark of 146.12.
In a nutshell, USD/JPY continues to face a bearish bias below 150.00. In the event of an upside breakout, downside risks may not evaporate until the price runs sustainably beyond 153.40, while an extension above 156.00 would put the price back on an uptrend.