The Canadian dollar is calm in the European session, trading at 1.4438, up 0.02% on the day. Later today, Canada releases GDP and the US publishes the Core PCE Price Index.
USD/CAD has rallied for five straight trading days, gaining 1.8% during that time and hitting a three-week high.
Canada’s GDP Expected to Rebound in January
Canada’s economy is projected to have gained 0.3% m/m in December, following a 0.2% decline in November. Canada will also release GDP for fourth-quarter 2024, which is expected at 1.8% y/y, up from 1% in the third quarter.
The forecast for an improvement in GDP is based on a busy December shopping season, as consumers took advantage of a sales tax holiday which started on December 15.
The Bank of Canada has also projected at 1.8% gain in GDP for Q4 2024 but remains concerned about the damage from potential US tariffs on Canadian products.
The Trump administration has sent mixed messages as to whether the tariffs will take effect on March 4, leaving Canadian officials in the dark. The US imposed and then revoked 25% tariffs on Canada on Feb. 4 and suspended the tariffs for 30 days.
The BoC has said that a trade war with the US would inflict “permanent” damage on Canada’s GDP and raise inflation. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the US and is extremely vulnerable to US tariffs.
The BoC lowered rates by a quarter point at the January 29 meeting but if the US reinstates tariffs against Canada next week, it would complicate any plans to continue lowering rates. The BoC meets next on March 12.
The US delivers core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, later today. The market estimates for January stand at 2.6% y/y (vs. 2.8% in December) and 0.2% m/m (vs. 0.3% in December).
This would indicate that inflation remains sticky, still above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. The Fed is in no rush to cut rates, unless inflation drops more than expected or the labor market, which has been cooling slowly, suddenly deteriorates.