Previous session overview
The USD resumed trading after the three-day Easter holiday on the offense in a very light session overnight; most of Asia was closed and Europeans are on their Easter break. Most large banks had light staff on the desks and the Greenback is trading mostly in a technical consolidation traders say.
An Asian central bank bought large amounts of euro's from below $1.5440 in a thin market Tuesday, squeezing many players out of short positions.
The US Philly Fed index remained firmly in negative territory in March, with the headline index at -17.4 vs -24.0 in February.
The leading index also points to deteriorating conditions, declining for the 5th consecutive month. The leading index fell 0.3% in February, and January was revised to -0.4% from -0.1%.
US initial jobless claims rose 22k to 378k in the last week.
EURUSD traded with a low of 1.5343 and a high of 1.5456 before closing the day at 1.5418 in the New York session.
After sharp losses last week, the British pound recovered against all of the major currencies. The only piece of economic data released from the UK was a report on house prices. GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.9761 and a high of 1.9876 before closing the day at 1.9842 in the New York session.
All of the Japanese Yen crosses have rebounded significantly on the back of the rally in the US stock market. USDJPY traded with a low of 99.39 and a high of 100.90 before closing the day at 100.80 in the New York session.
The Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars extended their recovery despite a drop in commodity prices. This move was due entirely to the improvement in risk appetite because these currencies did not take off until after the release of the stronger than expected US existing home sales report.
Market expectation
The euro-dollar pair is unlikely to post further losses Tuesday, and European markets will look to euros. Several traders saying that European traders more likely to take advantage of the euro's weakness and buy as it had been trading around 1.5625 just prior to the holiday.
Recent movements in exchange rates have been "excessive," and the European Central Bank will continue to monitor currency markets very closely.
Looking forward, London is back from vacation and we should expect to see more depth to the market. It will be interesting to see if the recent USD rally was a correction in a longer term trend lower in the USD or the beginning of a bottom in the USD.
We believe that the move in USD/JPY could extend for another 100 to 150 pips; the recovery should be short lived.
We expect the dollar to continue edging higher against the majors in the week ahead, with initial targets of 1.52 versus the euro and 1.96 against the British pound. The correction in commodities is also seen extending, thereby pressuring the commodity currencies such as the Aussie and Canadian dollar lower.
The US economic calendar this week consist of the Richmond Fed survey, March consumer confidence, building permits, durable goods orders, new home sales, final Q4 GDP, core PCE, personal consumption, personal income, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment. The final reading for Q4 GDP is seen unrevised at 0.6% on a quarterly basis and unchanged at 2.6% y/y.
Today will see the release of U.S. consumer confidence and house price index.