Asia was content to hold currencies at, around, NY closing levels in a quiet Friday session. Data releases focused on Singapore – one “good” one and one bad one.
On the positive side, external trade picked up in October with non-oil domestic exports recording 7.9 percent annual growth, a strong rebound from the -3.6 percent seen the previous month and better than market consensus of +3.1 percent. Pharmaceutical shipments rose 2.7 percent while electronics exports fell 0.8 percent on-year. Exports to the EU showed a surprisingly robust rebound, rising 8.9 percent following a 15.7 percent decline in September.
On the negative side, Q3 GDP was revised heavily lower from the flash estimate with downgrades to both the manufacturing and service sectors. Annual growth was +0.3 percent, down from the 2.5 percent recorded in Q2 as manufacturing sector growth fell 1.4 percent from the second quarter and services were 0.4 percent lower, predominantly driven by the financial services sub-sector falling 0.3 percent. Official guidance following the release of the final data was also downbeat, warning that 2012 growth is expected close to, or just below the lower end of the 1.5-2.5 percent forecast range. For 2013 there is not much of an improvement expected with growth between 1-3 percent seen. The SGD weakened after the release with USDSGD rallying to its highest level in just over a month.
The JPY was again one of the bigger movers overnight on expectations of election-linked BOJ easing or JPY weakening measures. EUR shrugged off Q3 GDP data which showed the Euro-zone in technical recession and Germany only just in positive territory. GBP again underperformed on weak retail sales data and after Moody’s warned of a possible AAA rating cut.
US data continues to be affected by super-storm sandy as initial jobless claims jumped a whopping 78k to 439k and the Philadelphia Fed index slumped to -10.7 from +5.7. The Empire manufacturing index was not quite so despondent with a -5.22 reading from -6.16 while the weekly Bloomberg consumer comfort index was resilient with a -33.1 print from -34.4. Wall Street continues to be bothered by the US fiscal cliff with losses across the board – DJIA down 0.23 percent, S&P -0.16 percent and the Nasdaq -0.35 percent.
Data Highlights
- CA Sep. Manufacturing Sales out at +0.4% m/m vs. 0.3% expected and revised 0.9% prior
- US Oct. CPI out at +0.1% m/m, +2.2% y/y vs. 0.1%/2.1% expected and 0.1%/2.0% prior resp.
- US Oct CPI Ex-Food/Energy out at +0.2% m/m, +2.0% y/y vs. 0.1%/2.0% expected and 0.1%/2.0% prior resp.
- US Nov. Empire Manufacturing out at -5.22 vs. -8.0 expected and -6.16 prior
- US Initial Jobless Claims out at 439k vs. 375k expected and revised 361k prior
- CA Oct. Existing Home Sales out at -0.1% m/m vs. +2.5% prior
- US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index out at -33.1 vs. -34.4 prior
- US Q3 Mortgage Delinquencies out at +7.4% vs. 7.58% prior
- US Nov. Philadelphia Fed Index out at -10.7 vs. +2.0 expected and +5.7 Prior
- SI Q3 Final GDP (Annualized) out at -5.9% q/q vs. -2.9% expected and revised +0.5% prior
- SI Oct. Non-oil Domestic Exports out at -1.2% m/m, +7.9% y/y vs. -1.2%/+3.1% expected and revised +1.3%/-3.6% prior resp.
(All Times GMT)
- Sweden Industry Capacity (0830)
- EU Euro-zone Current Account Balance (0900)
- EU Euro-zone Trade Balance (1000)
- CA Int’l Securities Transactions (1330)
- US Net Long-term TIC Flows (1400)
- US Industrial Production (1415)
- Us Capacity Utilization (1415)
- US Manufacturing Production (1415)