By far the most important global market development yesterday was the ugly sell-off in US equities that ground all the way into the close at the day’s lows, suggesting a rather strong loss of confidence at the moment.
This move reinvigorates the bearish technical picture for the S&P500, among other indices, with the focus shifting now to the 200-day moving average just above 1900 on the cash index. I mention the US equity picture because it is important to keep an eye on global risk barometers and how our beloved currencies are trading relative to risk sentiment.
Also, the sell-off yesterday tell us that we are in a nervy, risk-off environment until proven otherwise. On that note, the most interesting action overnight by far was in USDJPY, where the dip below 108.00 was scooped up. To me this speaks of a very strong US dollar that refuses to be pushed around much by the Japanese yen even in an all-out risk-off environment.
Levels
USDJPY: Let’s watch the 108.00/107.75 area as the most important support, with the rejection of the 108.00 break overnight suggesting the pair looks like a buy on dips, though JPY is still strong elsewhere – traders might considering USDJPY higher if JPY is also weakening elsewhere.
EURUSD: the 1.2690/1.2700 now double underlined as an important resistance level after yesterday’s action. Let’s watch for a solid move below 1.2600/1.2575 to embolden the bulls. Daily pivot is below 1.2650
GBPUSD and EURGBP: trying to figure out what it wants to do between 1.6050 and 1.6125. Focus remains lower unless we are zooming back above 1.6100 and the USD is weak elsewhere. Disappointing for GBP fans that the EURGBP reversal off 0.7875 resistance yesterday didn’t bear more downside fruit. Is GBP sensitive to further risk-off? My best guess is yes and this would go strongly against market consensus, so we could see quite a squeeze here if we trade well above the 0.7875 level.
AUDUSD: waiting for that employment report tonight – overnight highs at 0.8830 first resistance and then the focus would shift to 0.8933 on a . 0.8750 is the daily pivot today. To keep tactical bearish stance, would prefer for the pair to stay below 0.8800 .
EURSEK: SEK traditionally performs poorly in risk-off markets and yesterday’s bullish pattern reversal suggests we are in danger of a move back into the higher range above 9.13/9.15 if this risk-off environment continues.
Chart: EURSEK
An interesting reversal in EURSEK yesterday that could lead to a break back into the old range if markets remain nervous, as SEK tends to be a pro-cyclical currency and often suffers during bouts of risk-off.
Looking ahead
We have the Federal Open Market Committee minutes tonight. Remember that everyone present gets to jawbone during the meetings but that those in control (Yellen, Dudley, Fischer) are the dovish anchor of the FOMC. There are clearly hawkish and dovish voices among FOMC members, but I'm not sure we'll get a big takeaway from today’s minutes, especially as they come from a meeting that was held before the most dramatic recent leg of USD strength.
Overnight, look for the Australian employment report for September after an August report that saw a massive growth in payrolls driven by statistical adjustments. I wonder if there will be any takeaway from tonight’s data almost regardless of the number that is released.
Economic Data Highlights
- China Sep. HSBC Services PMI out at 53.5 vs. 54.1 in Aug.
- Japan Sep. Eco Watchers Survey Current/Outlook out at 47.4/48.7 vs. 47.4/50.4 in Aug. respectively
Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- Canada Sep. Housing Starts (1215)
- US Fed’s Evans to Speak (1230)
- US FOMC Minutes of Sep 16-17 meeting (1800)
- New Zealand Sep. Card Spending (2145)
- UK Sep. RICS House Price Balance (2301)
- Japan Aug. Machine Orders (2350)
- Australia Sep. Employment Change/Unemployment Rate (0030)