GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies
Taken Positions
GBP/USD: long at 1.5460, target 1.5800, stop-loss 1.5365, risk factor **
USD/JPY: short at 122.20, target 120.10, stop-loss 123.10, risk factor **
EUR/CAD: long 1.3480, target 1.3700, stop-loss 1.3380, risk factor **
CHF/JPY: long at 129.10, target 131.40, stop-loss 127.90, risk factor **
AUD/JPY: long at 95.60, target 98.80, stop-loss 94.60, risk factor **
Pending Orders
EUR/CHF: buy at 1.0320, if filled – target 1.0510, stop-loss 1.0225, risk factor **
EUR/USD: No Signs Of A Rebound, Waiting For US Data
(stop-loss hit again, stay sideways)
- Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said it was misleading to give so much importance to the Fed's first interest rate hike since the process of returning to a more normal level will take a few years. He said: “What we are thinking about is raising the interest rate from zero, which is an ultra expansionary monetary policy to a quarter percent, which is an extremely expansionary monetary policy. This will be a gradual process.” Fischer noted that the Federal Reserve board expects the interest rate will reach 3.25 to 4% by 2017-2018.
- Greece's financial crisis sent the EUR to its lowest level in a month today and our long EUR/USD position hit the stop-loss level at 1.0895. Greek government says it hopes to reach a cash-for-reforms deal in days, although European Union and IMF lenders are more pessimistic and say talks are moving too slowly for that. Nikos Filis, spokesman for the ruling Syriza party's lawmakers, said Greece cannot make an upcoming payment to the International Monetary Fund on 5 June, unless foreign lenders disburse more aid.
- Investors await the latest batch of US data later on Tuesday that could provide more clues on the strength of economic recovery, including durable goods for May and consumer confidence for April. We stay sideways now. In our opinion no position is justified from the risk/reward perspective. The EUR/USD is close to 1.0882 support (61.8% fibo of 1.0521-1.1468 rise) but there are no signs of a rebound. We see a rising risk of a further fall to the daily cloud base at 1.0738.
Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 1.0981 (hourly high May 26), 1.1062 (low May 20), 1.1127 (100-dma)
Support: 1.0882 (61.8% of 1.0521-1.1468), 1.0860 (low Apr 28), 1.0785 (low Apr 24)
USD/JPY: Waiting For Some Better Macro Figures From Japan
(short at 122.20)
- The USD/JPY reached an eight-year peak above 122.04 today. The nearest resistance levels are psychological barrier at 123.00 and 123.67 (high on July 9, 2007). We got short at 122.20, in line with our yesterday’s strategy.
- We are waiting for some better macroeconomic readings from Japan’s economy later this week now. Our forecast for tomorrow’s (23:50 GMT) retail sales data are much better than the market consensus.
- The market will be focused today on US durable goods data (12:30 GM) and our expectations (-0.8% mom) are below the median market forecast (-0.4% mom). Weaker US data would be good news for our short USD/JPY position.
Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 123.00 (psychological level), 123.67 (high Jul 9, 2007), 124.14 (high Jun 6, 2007)
Support: 121.45 (low May 25), 120.64 (low May 22), 120.58 (low May 20)