USD/JPY: Expect A Move Higher, Then A Pullback

The 97.55 - 98.00 range looks important

Resistance: 97.93-00 98.18-23 98.40 98.68-88
Support: 97.55-60 97.23 96.96 96.74

MAIN ANALYSIS: No break above 98.35 to confirm the larger move to 99.28+. Thus losses were seen and below 97.67-80 to make it look more like extending losses. However, the recovery from yesterday's 97.23 low does have a constructive look about it and if we treat the 98.23 high as a stubby initial wave there is still an argument for the upside to extend to 99.28+. Here I'll put a 97.45 break level in place. Indeed, if this is to make further gains then I suspect the 97.55-60 area to be the most we see on the downside and from there look for gains up to 98.68-88 and following a brief correction up to the 99.28-60 area (allow for 99.80-90.)

Expect a minor new high around 97.93-00 first thing and then the pullback to test the key support.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Any earlier break below 97.45-55 and then yesterday's 97.23 low would see this move lower, initially to the 96.96 low and later to 96.45 at least. Take care here. Note the next support at 95.78.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
25th June: Because price fell short of the ideal 98.77 target we're going to have to be open to the alternative of an irregular triangle as in EURJPY. I could absorb a deeper correction to the 96.45-75 area but not really any more. It also happens that 96.44 is a potential projection in the decline from 98.69 and also a pivot support. I do see this as a critical divider between bullish and bearish. As long as it holds and we see gains back above 97.00-30 we can move higher to the 99.25-70 area. Any loss of 96.44 would risk follow-through to 95.78 (probably) and 95.39-57 (maybe) but then a correction before heading down to the 94.95-10 area minimum and probably 94.45-55.