Market Movers
The Sentix investor confidence for March out 10:30 CET today will be followed closely for any signs of stabilisation following the latest improvement in financial risk sentiment.
German factory orders for January will give insight into whether the financial turmoil and weaker survey data in January are reflected in hard data.
Fed's vice chair Fischer (voter, neutral) and Brainard (voter, dovish) are speaking today. No other public events involving FOMC members are scheduled before the FOMC meeting on 16 March as we enter the unofficial silent period.
The main event this week is the ECB meeting on Thursday with the rate decision at 13:45 CET and the press conference starting at 14:30 CET. We expect the ECB to cut the deposit rate by 10bp to -0.4%, to introduce a two-tier deposit rate system aimed at reducing the cost to the banking sector and signalling the deposit rate can go even lower. We also look for the ECB to front-load the QE purchases by EUR20bn p/m in spring to signal a willingness to support inflation.
In Sweden we have budget balance figures and in Norway manufacturing production data, see Scandi Markets.
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