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US Stock Indices Short-Term Outlook: December 16, 2012

Published 12/16/2012, 05:20 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
NDX
-
Main analysis
Nasdaq 100
Nasdaq 100:

2628.71

Short-Term Trend: Sideways

Outlook: The market couldn't overcome the 2700 resistance level and pulled back last week. As you know, I was looking for a pullback toward 2600 to turn long. But I no longer like this idea. While I still slightly favor the upside and expect a move toward 2762, the wave structure allows (for the first time) to assume the upmove from the December 2011 low is complete. But we can confirm the latter only with a decline below 2500. In the meantime, the outlook is considered neutral.

Strategy: Stand aside.
S&P500
S&P500: 1413.58

Short-Term Trend: Sideways

Outlook: As expected, the market rallied early last week, but it found resistance at 1438 and pulled back sharply from there on Thursday and Friday. As result, the previous bullish idea has weakened considerably. It is still possible for the uptrend from the mid-November low to resume as long as the prices find support at 1400 level. But a decline below 1400 will indicate that the advance from the November low has ended and this will signal that the entire pattern from the December 2011 low is likely complete. So, I think it is time to get more cautious here.

Strategy: Holding long from 1395 is favored. Stop=1395. Target=1455.

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