Nasdaq 100:
Nasdaq 100:
2646.52
Short-Term Trend: uptrend
Outlook:
Last week Nasdaq 100 dipped to its rising 21-day moving average and then recovered quickly by the end of the week. As result, the daily uptrend remains strong and thus further gains should be expected. However, as the market is approaching the long-term Fibo level at 2682 I expect the upside to become more difficult and the at some point a trend reversal to be seen. A move below last week's low will be a strong signal that a ST top is finally in place....
Strategy: Shorts favored on break of 2575 with 50 pts stop.
S&P500:
S&P500:
1370.75
Short-Term Trend: uptrend
Outlook:
Last week S&P500 declined exactly to the key 1340 support and then bounced back. At one point it was looking as the index was ready to break lower but the bulls step in and saved the market. But I still think that we are getting very close to an important top. Maybe the market is going to spend a few weeks between 1340 and 1378 before it can break lower. Or maybe the uptrend is so strong, that a fast rally twd 1454 will develop in the next couple of weeks. In either case, we are very late in the uptrend from the mid-December 2011 low and I expect a sizable pullback to start soon. A move below 1340 will be a strong sign that a Short-Term top is already in place...
Strategy: Shorts favored on break below 1340. Stop=30 pts.