Economic output in the fourth quarter is expected to increase at a solid rate in this week’s initial GDP estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Thursday’s report from the government (Jan. 29) is on track to rise 2.7%, based on the median estimate from several sources compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
If the median 2.7% estimate (seasonally adjusted annual rate) is correct, US growth will downshift modestly from the 3.1% increase reported for Q3.
Today’s median 2.7% nowcast has been revised up from the 2.4% estimate published on Jan. 14. The upgrade at this late date for Q4 estimates suggests a relatively confident outlook that Thursday’s release will print at or near Q3’s pace.
Note, too, that some of the individual nowcasts used to calculate the median in the chart above are pointing to a moderate acceleration in growth. Yesterday’s GDPNow revision (Jan. 28) from the Atlanta Fed, for instance, lifted its Q4 nowcast to 3.2%, or fractionally above Q3’s 3.1% advance.
A model I built for TMC Research, a division of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth manager, reflects an even stronger Q4 nowcast: +3.6% for the Jan. 21 update. This estimate isn’t included in the chart above, but it offers another data point that suggests Thursday’s report will highlight ongoing growth for the US economy at a solid pace.