US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis: October 23, 2013

Our last analysis expected an overall downward movement for oil, which is what has happened. And. the wave count remains the same.




The bigger picture sees US Oil in a new downwards trend to last from one to several years. When I can see a clear five wave structure downwards on the daily chart I will have confidence in a trend change at cycle degree.

So far to the downside there is an almost completed five wave impulse down. The fifth wave is showing an overshoot of the parallel channel typical of commodities. When minute wave v completes minor wave 1 then I would expect upwards movement for a few days for minor wave 2.

The parallel channel drawn here about minor wave 1 is drawn first with a trend line from the lows of minute waves i to iii, then a parallel copy is placed upon the high of minute wave ii.

When this channel is clearly breached by upwards movement then I would have confidence that minute wave i is completed and minute wave ii is underway.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 112.24.



Within minute wave v the structure is incomplete, I expect further downwards movement before a mid term trend change.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii. This makes it more likely that minute wave v would exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii. Minute wave v has passed equality with minute wave i, and has passed 0.618 the length of minute wave iii. The next likely ratio would be equality with minute wave iii at 94.46.

On the way down to this target there should be three small fourth wave corrections, and each successive fourth wave may not move back into its counterpart first wave price territory.

In the short term micro wave 4 may not move into micro wave 1 price territory. In the very short term this wave count is invalidated with movement above 100.11.

When micro waves 4 and 5 are completed then the short term invalidation point moves up to the low of subminuette wave i at 100.67.