Our models suggest a slowdown in job growth in September to 180,000. This is below the recent trend of more than 200,000 new jobs created per month but still enough to put additional downward pressure on the unemployment rate. We estimate that the manufacturing sector shed 20,000 jobs in September as the sector remains under pressure from a strong US dollar and global growth uncertainty. We look for government employment to increase a moderate 5,000.
In terms of the unemployment rate, we expect the rate to stay unchanged at 5.1% in September but to head below 5% by year-end.
Average hourly earnings are still not showing any substantial pick-up contrary to what could have been expected given the tighter labour market. We continue to expect wage inflation to pick up as we move towards year-end. Upward pressure on wages is already evident in sectors with more flexible wage dynamics.
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