US Job Report Should Confirm That Labour Market Is Recovering

Published 11/29/2013, 03:54 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

The job report in the US should confirm that the labour market is recovering and we estimate non-farm payrolls increased by 190,000 in November.

We expect the ECB to ease again but, in our view, the December meeting next week is too early for more stimulus. Despite an increase in inflation in November, the outlook remains subdued and Mario Draghi will be dovish at the meeting.

Danmark's Nationalbank is due to publish foreign exchange reserve figures and we do not expect them to show that the central bank has had to intervene.

We do not expect any changes in interest rates or any signals of imminent changes from Norges Bank.

Focus will also be on PMIs in the euro area, the UK, China, Sweden and Norway and ISM in the US.

Global update

Although euro area inflation was up a little, an environment of very low inflation and low interest rates and a better growth outlook continue to support risky assets, as we saw in 2003-07 - only more so.

A five-year high in building permits indicates that the US housing market is getting better.

Japan's strategy of reinflating the economy seems to be working, with inflation and PMIs up again.

Low growth underlines the need for a Swedish rate cut in December.

To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below.

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