The weekly export sales report for beans showed 410 thousand metric tons were sold last week down 34 percent from the week prior. China was absent from the buyers list. New crop year after September first came in at 29 thousand. Demand has slowed due to fresh harvested beans coming out of Brazil and Argentina. One event may have China returning to U.S. ports due to the Chinese cancelling three cargo ships of Brazilian beans due to disease. Brazil is treating the problem at the ports. But delays may be seen shifting demand to U.S. ports.
But first things first, the USDA planted acreage report comes out this Thursday March 31. It is a poll of how much of each of the grain will be planted. Last month’s Ag forum meeting suggested planting to come in at 82.5 million acres versus 82.7 last year. In other words. no meaningful change in planted acreage. This will probably not be the case. With soybeans over 9 dollars and corn under 4 dollars it is more probable than not that we will plant more acres of beans over corn. Should the report come in suggesting farmers are to plant three million more acres or more, funds which went from holding a short position to a long position will temporally enter short again. The break could be half the recent 50 cent rally.
Back to 8.84 support, at which time I would move into being a buyer of November beans and look for the market to override recent bearish demand news and begin to build a weather premium in the market that reflects the uncertainty’s that el-Niño will bring to the growing season. Traders are already witnessing a growing season with too hot in the southwest wheat states, and to wet in the southern delta corn and bean states.
Beans
Support on May beans lies at 9.00 then 8.84.
Resistances 9.16 then 9.30.
Corn
Support on May corn lies at 3.63 then 3.55
Resistance at 3.74 then 3.79 then 3.86.
Wheat
May wheat support 4.40