US Dollar Index Speculator Positions
Large currency speculators lowered their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week for the first time in ten weeks, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index Futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 14,799 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday May 26th. This was a weekly decrease of -2,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,297 net contracts.
This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) dropping by -3,476 contracts (to a weekly total of 21,039 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a lesser fall by -978 contracts on the week (to a total of 6,240 contracts).
US Dollar Index speculators cut back on their bullish bets following nine straight weeks of gains that had brought the bullish position to the highest level since March 3rd. This week’s decline wiped out the small but steady gains of the past six weeks. Overall, the US Dollar Index position has now continued to remain in bullish territory for 107 straight weeks, dating back to May of 2018.
Individual Currencies Data this week: Peso, Yen, Euro bets rise this week
In the other major currency contracts data, we saw just one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators' category as the Mexican peso rebounded after an extremely dismal stretch.
Mexican peso positions jumped this week by over +10,000 contracts following a steep decline in the past few months. Peso bets recently peaked at a new all-time record high bullish position on January 28th with a total of +170,366 contracts. Since that record, peso positions fell dramatically with declining positions in fifteen out of the next sixteen weeks through May 19th. This free-fall took off a total of -176,350 contracts from the peso standing and dropped the overall speculator position into a negative or bearish standing. This week’s gain, however, has managed to get the peso position back over the hump and into a small bullish position at a total of +4,691 net contracts.
Japanese yen speculators boosted their bullish position this week by over +7,000 contracts. This was the second gain in three weeks and sixth-time bullish bets have risen in the past eight weeks. Currently, the yen speculative position is at the most bullish level since November 1st of 2016, a span of 186 weeks.
Euro currency positions rose this week after falling in three out of the previous four weeks. Euro speculative positions, despite the recent setbacks, have done very well over the past thirteen weeks with gains in ten of those weeks and with a cumulative rise of +189,243 contracts in that time-frame. The euro exchange rate, however, has seen less than stellar results with drop below the 1.07 level in March but did manage to ride some momentum and break above the 1.10 level this week.
Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the euro (2,660 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (7,137 contracts), Swiss franc (11 contracts), Canadian dollar (1,102 contracts), New Zealand dollar (824 contracts) and the Mexican peso (10,675 contracts).
The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the US dollar index (-2,498 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-3,268 contracts) and the Australian dollar(-980 contracts).
Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range
The above chart depicts each currency’s current speculator strength level compared to data of the past 3 years. A score of 0 percent would mean speculator bets are currently at the lowest level of the past three years. A 100 percent score would be at the highest level while a 50 percent score would mean speculator bets are right in the middle of the data (a neutral score). We use above 80 percent (extreme bullish) and below 20 percent (extreme bearish) as extreme score measurements.
Please see the data table and individual currency charts below.
Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:
This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
EuroFX:
The Euro large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 75,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,562 net contracts.
British Pound Sterling:
The large British pound sterling speculator level equaled a net position of -22,257 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly lowering of -3,268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,989 net contracts.
Japanese Yen:
Large Japanese yen speculators came in at a net position of 34,607 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly lift of 7,137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,470 net contracts.
Swiss Franc:
The Swiss franc speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 8,739 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,728 net contracts.
Canadian Dollar:
Canadian dollar speculators came in at a net position of -33,954 contracts this week. This was a rise of 1,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,056 net contracts.
Australian Dollar:
The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures recorded a net position of -40,538 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,558 net contracts.
New Zealand Dollar:
The New Zealand dollar speculative standing came in at a net position of -15,043 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly advance of 824 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,867 net contracts.
Mexican Peso:
Mexican peso speculators equaled a net position of 4,691 contracts this week. This was a weekly gain of 10,675 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,984 net contracts.