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UK November Retail Sales Flat

ByBNP Paribas
AuthorPhilippe d'Arvisenet
Published 12/20/2012, 06:24 AM
Updated 03/09/2019, 08:30 AM
FTNMX402020
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GFKG
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In November, retail sales were flat, while a pick-up in sales was expected. They remain unchanged between September and November. Overall November figures bode ill for Q4 GDP growth.

According to November CBI trade survey retailers expected a pick-up in sales last month. Nonetheless, retail sales were flat in November after decreasing 0.8% m/m in October. They were up 0.9% year-on-year and were unchanged between September and November.

Non-food sales were up a modest 0.3% m/m while food sales declined by 0.1%, after having already recorded in October their biggest monthly decline since May 2011 (-0.7%). Sales in nonspecialised stores slumped by 1.5%. Finally, household goods sales bounced back from October, up 3.8% thus more than offsetting October fall (-0.7% m/m). On-line sector were flat.

The ONS pointed today that the economic outlook for UK retail sales appears to be quite uncertain. On the one hand consumer prices have recorded upward pressure since October (cf. Ecoflash 18/12/2012). Consequently household’s real incomes are still decreasing, which has led to a fall in consumer buying power, especially for the "squeezed middle." Furthermore, this has led to long-term changes in purchasing habits, such as the move to internet shopping. On the other hand, consumer confidence rose in November, according to the monthly GFK Survey.

Finally, December CBI trade survey seems to be disappointing, as retailers were looking to the key Christmas period to boost sales. Nevertheless, many consumers may be holding off from doing their Christmas shopping until virtually the last moment in the hope that worried retailers will offer more and more discounts and promotions.

To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below.

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