Take a look at the long-term chart of oil prices and you can quickly see that the price swings have been getting increasingly smaller for several months.
The price has formed a series of lower highs and higher lows.
The pattern that emerges from this kind of price action is a triangle or wedge, and for technical traders like us it means only one thing; the market is winding up like a spring to make a decisive break out from the pattern.
From a trader’s perspective the short answer is: it doesn’t matter. Whenever the break-out occurs, you trade it the same way, regardless of direction.
Watch for a decisive break from the pattern - either up or down - and trade in the direction of the break-out.
The keyword in that sentence is “decisive.” There are often a number of false break-outs from patterns like this, and more cautious traders will watch for a break-out, then a retracement to the break-out point and then a bounce before entering the trade.
It is more exciting to jump on the first break-out, and sometimes more profitable, but also more dangerous. Remember, in mouse traps and markets, it’s the second mouse that gets the cheese.