Trumping Brent Oil Futures. Oil got Trumped and dumped. While many people feared that President Trump aggressive trade negotiations would raise the price of oil, so far oil has been Trumped and dumped. Oil prices have defied some analysts fears that Trump would increase prices with his trade threats but so far the opposite seems to be happening. President Trump, with a mix of peace negotiations coupled with relaxing regulations on the oil and gas industry, has caused the price of oil drop even as our trade partners have to raise their tariffs on oil and gas and even cut off their exports.
Now today breaking news may bring oil a bid after a Reuters exclusive reported that the US is mulling a plan to disrupt Iran’s oil by halting vessels at sea. In recent weeks Iran’s oil exports have surged and President Trump, unlike the previous Administration, is looking at ways to clamp down on Iran oil trade. The latest in that effort as reported by Reuters includes considering this more aggressive action. Supply from Iran to China rebounded to 1.4 million bpd in the period February 1-20, after falling close to a two-year low below 800,000 bpd in January, Vortexa data showed. Shandong-bound Iranian volumes surpassed 1.1 million bpd and exceeded the 2024 average, the data showed. Kpler data showed Iranian crude arrivals in China rose to 771,000 bpd in February, up from 692,000 bpd in January.
“President Donald Trump’s administration is considering a plan to stop and inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea under an international accord aimed at countering the spread of weapons of mass destruction, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters,” Reuters reported.
Trump has vowed to restore a “maximum pressure” campaign to isolate Iran from the global economy and drive its oil exports to zero, in order to stop the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Trump hit Iran with two waves of fresh sanctions in the first weeks of his second-term, targeting companies and the so-called shadow fleet of ageing oil tankers that sail without Western insurance and transport crude from sanctioned countries. Those moves have largely been in line with the limited measures implemented during Joe Biden’s administration, when Iran succeeded in ramping up oil exports through complex smuggling networks. Trump officials are now looking at ways for allied countries to stop and inspect ships sailing through critical chokepoints such as the Malacca Strait in Asia and other sea lanes, according to six sources who asked not to be named due to the sensitive subject.
President Trump also met with Canadian Prime Minter Trudeau and announced that he would temporarily spare carmakers from a new 25% import tax imposed on Canada and Mexico, just a day after the tariffs came into effect.
“For anyone who is interested, I also told Governor Justin Trudeau of Canada that he largely caused the problems we have with them because of his Weak Border Policies, which allowed tremendous amounts of Fentanyl, and Illegal Aliens, to pour into the United States. These Policies are responsible for the death of many people,” President Trump said on Truth Social
Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith said she is halting Alberta’s purchase of U.S. goods, alcohol and gambling machines. Apparently, Alberta is very upset that the United States is putting tariffs on her province, she has come to the realization that Alberta basically puts tariffs on her countrymen and other provinces. She is now lifted her tariffs on British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and even New Brunswick (NYSE:BC). So, it seems that Trump’s policies have expanded free trade in Canada!
This comes as President Trump is sending a message to the Hamas terror group to release the hostages or else. While many other countries seem to be falling all over themselves to support Ukraine, they seem oblivious to supporting Israel.
“Shalom Hamas” means Hello and Goodbye – You can choose. Release all of the Hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you. Only sick and twisted people keep bodies, and you are sick and twisted! I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say. I have just met with your former Hostages whose lives you have destroyed. This is your last warning! For the leadership, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance. Also, to the People of Gaza: A beautiful Future awaits, but not if you hold Hostages. If you do, you are DEAD! Make a SMART decision. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW, OR THERE WILL BE HELL TO PAY LATER! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Oil inventories were taken as a bit bearish but the drop in runs is seasonal. Demand was impressive. The drop in price should give us a good place to put on the seasonal trades for the Easter run-up.
Reuters reported that Mexican state company Pemex is in talks with potential buyers in Asia, including China, and Europe, as it seeks alternative markets for its crude after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on imports, a senior Mexican government official said. Trump this week implemented 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. While Canadian crude won an exception of a 10% levy, Mexican crude is to be taxed at 25%.
Natural gas exploded on cold weather and natural gas threat from Canada. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said:
“Alberta happens to have one of the largest deposits of oil and natural gas on the planet. It is significantly larger and far more accessible than the quickly declining oil and gas reserves located in the United States. Whether the US President wishes to admit it or not, the United States not only needs our oil and gas today, they are also going to need it more and more with each passing year once they notice their declining domestic reserves and production are wholly insufficient.”
Maybe today! But not tomorrow. John Kemp Energy reported that in contrast to oil, U.S. gas production is likely to increase significantly in 2025, after prices more than doubled in real terms from the multi-decade low in the first quarter of 2024. Dry gas production declined slightly to an average of 103.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in 2024 from 103.6 bcf/d in 2023. Front-month futures prices slumped to an average of less than $1.80 per million British thermal units in March 2024, the lowest since futures trading began in 1990, after adjusting for inflation.
Since then, however, prices have more than doubled to an average of $3.74 in February 2025, putting them in the 29th percentile for all months since 1990 in real terms. Falling production, combined with record consumption from gas-fired generators, growth in exports, and the coldest winter for six years, has tightened supplies sharply. Surplus inventories in March 2024 inherited from the very mild winter of 2023/24 had been transformed into a large and widening deficit by February 2025.